Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts for New York City on August 18 point to an overnight low near 69–72°F under a warm, humid southerly flow with limited radiational cooling, keeping the daily minimum in the low-to-mid 70s range as the most likely outcome. Persistent above-average August temperatures, driven by a stable air mass and urban heat island effects, have elevated trader expectations for the 74–75°F bin, which holds a 70% market-implied probability. Model consensus from NHC/NOAA guidance shows only modest overnight drops before daytime heating to the mid-80s, with minimal precipitation to enhance cooling. Historical mid-August Central Park lows average near 68°F, but current conditions favor the warmer side of climatology, explaining the strong preference for 74–75°F over cooler bins that would require stronger northerly advection or clearer skies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in NYC on August 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 18?
74-75°F 70%
72-73°F 28%
70-71°F 5%
78-79°F 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 18, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
5%
72-73°F
28%
74-75°F
70%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 70%
72-73°F 28%
70-71°F 5%
78-79°F 3%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 18, 2026
63°F or below
$150 Wol.
<1%
64-65°F
$150 Wol.
<1%
66-67°F
$206 Wol.
<1%
68-69°F
$31 Wol.
3%
70-71°F
$175 Wol.
5%
72-73°F
$282 Wol.
28%
74-75°F
$486 Wol.
70%
76-77°F
$2,014 Wol.
1%
78-79°F
$834 Wol.
3%
80-81°F
$1,638 Wol.
<1%
82°F or higher
$421 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts for New York City on August 18 point to an overnight low near 69–72°F under a warm, humid southerly flow with limited radiational cooling, keeping the daily minimum in the low-to-mid 70s range as the most likely outcome. Persistent above-average August temperatures, driven by a stable air mass and urban heat island effects, have elevated trader expectations for the 74–75°F bin, which holds a 70% market-implied probability. Model consensus from NHC/NOAA guidance shows only modest overnight drops before daytime heating to the mid-80s, with minimal precipitation to enhance cooling. Historical mid-August Central Park lows average near 68°F, but current conditions favor the warmer side of climatology, explaining the strong preference for 74–75°F over cooler bins that would require stronger northerly advection or clearer skies.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$6,387Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts for New York City on August 18 point to an overnight low near 69–72°F under a warm, humid southerly flow with limited radiational cooling, keeping the daily minimum in the low-to-mid 70s range as the most likely outcome. Persistent above-average August temperatures, driven by a stable air mass and urban heat island effects, have elevated trader expectations for the 74–75°F bin, which holds a 70% market-implied probability. Model consensus from NHC/NOAA guidance shows only modest overnight drops before daytime heating to the mid-80s, with minimal precipitation to enhance cooling. Historical mid-August Central Park lows average near 68°F, but current conditions favor the warmer side of climatology, explaining the strong preference for 74–75°F over cooler bins that would require stronger northerly advection or clearer skies.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$6,387Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts for New York City on August 18 point to an overnight low near 69–72°F under a warm, humid southerly flow with limited radiational cooling, keeping the daily minimum in the low-to-mid 70s range as the most likely outcome. Persistent above-average August temperatures, driven by a stable air mass and urban heat island effects, have elevated trader expectations for the 74–75°F bin, which holds a 70% market-implied probability. Model consensus from NHC/NOAA guidance shows only modest overnight drops before daytime heating to the mid-80s, with minimal precipitation to enhance cooling. Historical mid-August Central Park lows average near 68°F, but current conditions favor the warmer side of climatology, explaining the strong preference for 74–75°F over cooler bins that would require stronger northerly advection or clearer skies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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