**Forecast consensus from NOAA/NWS and private models points to a minimum temperature in the mid-70s on August 31, 2026, under mostly clear skies, light southerly flow, and continued hot, dry conditions across central Texas.** Multiple 10-day outlooks issued August 30 show overnight lows of 76°F or 75–77°F, driven by minimal cloud cover that permits radiative cooling yet moderated by elevated dew points and a persistent southerly wind component. This setup keeps temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 August 31 average low of ~71.5°F. Market-implied odds concentrate on the 72–77°F bins because recent model runs exhibit limited spread around this range, with only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing or subtle wind shifts. Higher bins (80°F+) carry low probability given the absence of stronger warm advection or extensive cloud cover, while sub-70°F outcomes remain unlikely absent an unexpected surge of drier, northerly air. Traders are effectively pricing the latest official guidance and ensemble consensus for this single-day minimum.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Austin on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Austin on August 31?
74-75°F 40%
72-73°F 33%
76-77°F 27%
70-71°F 25%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
33%
74-75°F
40%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 40%
72-73°F 33%
76-77°F 27%
70-71°F 25%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
67°F or below
$80 Wol.
2%
68-69°F
$10 Wol.
3%
70-71°F
$0 Wol.
25%
72-73°F
$0 Wol.
33%
74-75°F
$0 Wol.
40%
76-77°F
$0 Wol.
27%
78-79°F
$0 Wol.
25%
80-81°F
$55 Wol.
21%
82-83°F
$135 Wol.
8%
84-85°F
$20 Wol.
2%
86°F or higher
$225 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from NOAA/NWS and private models points to a minimum temperature in the mid-70s on August 31, 2026, under mostly clear skies, light southerly flow, and continued hot, dry conditions across central Texas.**
Multiple 10-day outlooks issued August 30 show overnight lows of 76°F or 75–77°F, driven by minimal cloud cover that permits radiative cooling yet moderated by elevated dew points and a persistent southerly wind component. This setup keeps temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 August 31 average low of ~71.5°F.
Market-implied odds concentrate on the 72–77°F bins because recent model runs exhibit limited spread around this range, with only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing or subtle wind shifts. Higher bins (80°F+) carry low probability given the absence of stronger warm advection or extensive cloud cover, while sub-70°F outcomes remain unlikely absent an unexpected surge of drier, northerly air. Traders are effectively pricing the latest official guidance and ensemble consensus for this single-day minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 29, 2026, 3:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$525Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 29, 2026, 3:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from NOAA/NWS and private models points to a minimum temperature in the mid-70s on August 31, 2026, under mostly clear skies, light southerly flow, and continued hot, dry conditions across central Texas.**
Multiple 10-day outlooks issued August 30 show overnight lows of 76°F or 75–77°F, driven by minimal cloud cover that permits radiative cooling yet moderated by elevated dew points and a persistent southerly wind component. This setup keeps temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 August 31 average low of ~71.5°F.
Market-implied odds concentrate on the 72–77°F bins because recent model runs exhibit limited spread around this range, with only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing or subtle wind shifts. Higher bins (80°F+) carry low probability given the absence of stronger warm advection or extensive cloud cover, while sub-70°F outcomes remain unlikely absent an unexpected surge of drier, northerly air. Traders are effectively pricing the latest official guidance and ensemble consensus for this single-day minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$525Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 29, 2026, 3:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from NOAA/NWS and private models points to a minimum temperature in the mid-70s on August 31, 2026, under mostly clear skies, light southerly flow, and continued hot, dry conditions across central Texas.** Multiple 10-day outlooks issued August 30 show overnight lows of 76°F or 75–77°F, driven by minimal cloud cover that permits radiative cooling yet moderated by elevated dew points and a persistent southerly wind component. This setup keeps temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 August 31 average low of ~71.5°F. Market-implied odds concentrate on the 72–77°F bins because recent model runs exhibit limited spread around this range, with only modest uncertainty from boundary-layer mixing or subtle wind shifts. Higher bins (80°F+) carry low probability given the absence of stronger warm advection or extensive cloud cover, while sub-70°F outcomes remain unlikely absent an unexpected surge of drier, northerly air. Traders are effectively pricing the latest official guidance and ensemble consensus for this single-day minimum.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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