Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while leaving Iran's stockpile of approximately 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% unverified and largely inaccessible to IAEA inspectors. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a June 2026 interim accord and subsequent talks, focus on restoring safeguards access, downblending material, and verifying suspension of enrichment activities under NPT obligations. IAEA reports through September 2026 highlight persistent access denials and proliferation concerns but note no confirmed resumption of weapon-related work or test preparations. This combination of physical degradation, monitoring gaps, and diplomatic engagement underpins trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Shifts could arise from rapid covert reconstitution of capabilities, collapse of negotiations, or major escalations altering Iran's strategic calculus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% szansa
$251,652 Wol.
$251,652 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% szansa
$251,652 Wol.
$251,652 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while leaving Iran's stockpile of approximately 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% unverified and largely inaccessible to IAEA inspectors. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a June 2026 interim accord and subsequent talks, focus on restoring safeguards access, downblending material, and verifying suspension of enrichment activities under NPT obligations. IAEA reports through September 2026 highlight persistent access denials and proliferation concerns but note no confirmed resumption of weapon-related work or test preparations. This combination of physical degradation, monitoring gaps, and diplomatic engagement underpins trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Shifts could arise from rapid covert reconstitution of capabilities, collapse of negotiations, or major escalations altering Iran's strategic calculus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$251,652Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while leaving Iran's stockpile of approximately 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% unverified and largely inaccessible to IAEA inspectors. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a June 2026 interim accord and subsequent talks, focus on restoring safeguards access, downblending material, and verifying suspension of enrichment activities under NPT obligations. IAEA reports through September 2026 highlight persistent access denials and proliferation concerns but note no confirmed resumption of weapon-related work or test preparations. This combination of physical degradation, monitoring gaps, and diplomatic engagement underpins trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Shifts could arise from rapid covert reconstitution of capabilities, collapse of negotiations, or major escalations altering Iran's strategic calculus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$251,652Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while leaving Iran's stockpile of approximately 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% unverified and largely inaccessible to IAEA inspectors. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including a June 2026 interim accord and subsequent talks, focus on restoring safeguards access, downblending material, and verifying suspension of enrichment activities under NPT obligations. IAEA reports through September 2026 highlight persistent access denials and proliferation concerns but note no confirmed resumption of weapon-related work or test preparations. This combination of physical degradation, monitoring gaps, and diplomatic engagement underpins trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Shifts could arise from rapid covert reconstitution of capabilities, collapse of negotiations, or major escalations altering Iran's strategic calculus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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