Democratic nominee Sarah Trone Garriott holds a strong implied probability in the IA-03 race due to the district’s narrow R+2 partisan voting index and history of close contests, where Republican incumbent Zach Nunn prevailed by just 2–4 points in 2022 and 2024. Traders appear to weigh early-cycle Democratic advantages in fundraising—outpacing Republicans by over $1 million—and Garriott’s August 2026 ad launch emphasizing congressional ethics, term limits, and constituent engagement against Nunn’s record. The competitive rating from forecasters such as Cook Political Report, combined with midterm dynamics in a narrowly divided House, further supports the market’s assessment of a viable Democratic path. Uncontested June primaries cleared the field for both candidates without new volatility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIA-03 House Election Winner
IA-03 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
79%
Republican Party
22%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,519 Wol.
79%
Republican Party
$4,508 Wol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic nominee Sarah Trone Garriott holds a strong implied probability in the IA-03 race due to the district’s narrow R+2 partisan voting index and history of close contests, where Republican incumbent Zach Nunn prevailed by just 2–4 points in 2022 and 2024. Traders appear to weigh early-cycle Democratic advantages in fundraising—outpacing Republicans by over $1 million—and Garriott’s August 2026 ad launch emphasizing congressional ethics, term limits, and constituent engagement against Nunn’s record. The competitive rating from forecasters such as Cook Political Report, combined with midterm dynamics in a narrowly divided House, further supports the market’s assessment of a viable Democratic path. Uncontested June primaries cleared the field for both candidates without new volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
Wolumen
$8,027Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic nominee Sarah Trone Garriott holds a strong implied probability in the IA-03 race due to the district’s narrow R+2 partisan voting index and history of close contests, where Republican incumbent Zach Nunn prevailed by just 2–4 points in 2022 and 2024. Traders appear to weigh early-cycle Democratic advantages in fundraising—outpacing Republicans by over $1 million—and Garriott’s August 2026 ad launch emphasizing congressional ethics, term limits, and constituent engagement against Nunn’s record. The competitive rating from forecasters such as Cook Political Report, combined with midterm dynamics in a narrowly divided House, further supports the market’s assessment of a viable Democratic path. Uncontested June primaries cleared the field for both candidates without new volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$8,027Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic nominee Sarah Trone Garriott holds a strong implied probability in the IA-03 race due to the district’s narrow R+2 partisan voting index and history of close contests, where Republican incumbent Zach Nunn prevailed by just 2–4 points in 2022 and 2024. Traders appear to weigh early-cycle Democratic advantages in fundraising—outpacing Republicans by over $1 million—and Garriott’s August 2026 ad launch emphasizing congressional ethics, term limits, and constituent engagement against Nunn’s record. The competitive rating from forecasters such as Cook Political Report, combined with midterm dynamics in a narrowly divided House, further supports the market’s assessment of a viable Democratic path. Uncontested June primaries cleared the field for both candidates without new volatility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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