Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price surges from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and modest job gains, underpins the closely contested Polymarket odds for September–December 2026 FOMC decisions. The current 3.50–3.75% fed funds range has held for multiple meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh, whose removal of forward guidance and June dot plot showing a median 3.8% year-end rate have shifted trader consensus toward possible 25-basis-point hikes. With Pause–Pause–Pause at 26% and hike-inclusive paths clustered between 5–18%, markets reflect uncertainty over whether resilient growth data will prompt tightening at the September 15–16 meeting or sustain the hold through December. Upcoming inflation releases and the September Summary of Economic Projections remain key swing factors for the implied rate path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 15%
Pause–Hike–Pause 11.8%
$11,663 Wol.
$11,663 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
8%
Pause–Pause–Hike
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
12%
Other
8%
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 15%
Pause–Hike–Pause 11.8%
$11,663 Wol.
$11,663 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Wol.
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$489 Wol.
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Wol.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 Wol.
8%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 Wol.
15%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,140 Wol.
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Wol.
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 Wol.
12%
Other
$249 Wol.
8%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price surges from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and modest job gains, underpins the closely contested Polymarket odds for September–December 2026 FOMC decisions. The current 3.50–3.75% fed funds range has held for multiple meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh, whose removal of forward guidance and June dot plot showing a median 3.8% year-end rate have shifted trader consensus toward possible 25-basis-point hikes. With Pause–Pause–Pause at 26% and hike-inclusive paths clustered between 5–18%, markets reflect uncertainty over whether resilient growth data will prompt tightening at the September 15–16 meeting or sustain the hold through December. Upcoming inflation releases and the September Summary of Economic Projections remain key swing factors for the implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$11,663Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price surges from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and modest job gains, underpins the closely contested Polymarket odds for September–December 2026 FOMC decisions. The current 3.50–3.75% fed funds range has held for multiple meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh, whose removal of forward guidance and June dot plot showing a median 3.8% year-end rate have shifted trader consensus toward possible 25-basis-point hikes. With Pause–Pause–Pause at 26% and hike-inclusive paths clustered between 5–18%, markets reflect uncertainty over whether resilient growth data will prompt tightening at the September 15–16 meeting or sustain the hold through December. Upcoming inflation releases and the September Summary of Economic Projections remain key swing factors for the implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$11,663Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy price surges from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and modest job gains, underpins the closely contested Polymarket odds for September–December 2026 FOMC decisions. The current 3.50–3.75% fed funds range has held for multiple meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh, whose removal of forward guidance and June dot plot showing a median 3.8% year-end rate have shifted trader consensus toward possible 25-basis-point hikes. With Pause–Pause–Pause at 26% and hike-inclusive paths clustered between 5–18%, markets reflect uncertainty over whether resilient growth data will prompt tightening at the September 15–16 meeting or sustain the hold through December. Upcoming inflation releases and the September Summary of Economic Projections remain key swing factors for the implied rate path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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