Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% through the July 2026 meeting, where the FOMC voted 9-3 to hold with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by stable labor market conditions and June minutes signaling limited easing until 2027, drives the 84.5% market-implied odds on “Other” for the July–October sequence. The September 15–16 meeting, featuring updated economic projections, and the October 27–28 decision remain key catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations if incoming CPI or employment data alter the balance of risks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Other 85%
Pause–Pause–Pause 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$759,206 Wol.
$759,206 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
85%
Other 85%
Pause–Pause–Pause 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$759,206 Wol.
$759,206 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$254,600 Wol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$64,021 Wol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,698 Wol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$29,422 Wol.
1%
Other
$323,976 Wol.
85%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% through the July 2026 meeting, where the FOMC voted 9-3 to hold with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by stable labor market conditions and June minutes signaling limited easing until 2027, drives the 84.5% market-implied odds on “Other” for the July–October sequence. The September 15–16 meeting, featuring updated economic projections, and the October 27–28 decision remain key catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations if incoming CPI or employment data alter the balance of risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$759,206Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% through the July 2026 meeting, where the FOMC voted 9-3 to hold with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by stable labor market conditions and June minutes signaling limited easing until 2027, drives the 84.5% market-implied odds on “Other” for the July–October sequence. The September 15–16 meeting, featuring updated economic projections, and the October 27–28 decision remain key catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations if incoming CPI or employment data alter the balance of risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$759,206Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% through the July 2026 meeting, where the FOMC voted 9-3 to hold with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by stable labor market conditions and June minutes signaling limited easing until 2027, drives the 84.5% market-implied odds on “Other” for the July–October sequence. The September 15–16 meeting, featuring updated economic projections, and the October 27–28 decision remain key catalysts that could shift rate-path expectations if incoming CPI or employment data alter the balance of risks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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