Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the near-even 44.5% odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with earlier 2026 readings boosted by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while the Fed's June SEP projected 3.6% PCE inflation for the year and a 3.8% median federal funds rate endpoint. Officials including Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Waller have signaled a hawkish tilt, prioritizing the 2% target amid stable labor conditions near 4.3% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect trader uncertainty over whether August CPI data, due September 11, and the September 15-16 FOMC will tilt toward patience or preemptive tightening before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in December?
Fed Decision in December?
No change 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 6.8%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$534,969 Wol.
$534,969 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
45%
25 bps increase
45%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 45%
25 bps increase 45%
25 bps decrease 6.8%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$534,969 Wol.
$534,969 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$84,993 Wol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$136,485 Wol.
7%
No change
$86,066 Wol.
45%
25 bps increase
$138,632 Wol.
45%
50+ bps increase
$88,794 Wol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the near-even 44.5% odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with earlier 2026 readings boosted by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while the Fed's June SEP projected 3.6% PCE inflation for the year and a 3.8% median federal funds rate endpoint. Officials including Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Waller have signaled a hawkish tilt, prioritizing the 2% target amid stable labor conditions near 4.3% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect trader uncertainty over whether August CPI data, due September 11, and the September 15-16 FOMC will tilt toward patience or preemptive tightening before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$534,969Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the near-even 44.5% odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with earlier 2026 readings boosted by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while the Fed's June SEP projected 3.6% PCE inflation for the year and a 3.8% median federal funds rate endpoint. Officials including Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Waller have signaled a hawkish tilt, prioritizing the 2% target amid stable labor conditions near 4.3% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect trader uncertainty over whether August CPI data, due September 11, and the September 15-16 FOMC will tilt toward patience or preemptive tightening before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$534,969Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver behind the near-even 44.5% odds for no change versus a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, with earlier 2026 readings boosted by energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, while the Fed's June SEP projected 3.6% PCE inflation for the year and a 3.8% median federal funds rate endpoint. Officials including Chair Kevin Warsh and Governor Waller have signaled a hawkish tilt, prioritizing the 2% target amid stable labor conditions near 4.3% unemployment. The closely matched probabilities reflect trader uncertainty over whether August CPI data, due September 11, and the September 15-16 FOMC will tilt toward patience or preemptive tightening before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania