Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 is the main catalyst behind the 76% market-implied odds for claude-opus-5-max. The model delivers large gains in deep reasoning, agentic workflows, and long-horizon tasks while matching the price of Opus 4.8 and offering a 1-million-token context window plus native thinking at default settings. Traders view its balance of near-Fable 5 capability at lower cost as the decisive edge for the August 24 snapshot, especially with no competing frontier releases in the past two weeks. Variants such as claude-opus-5-high sit at 10% because they forgo the highest effort tier, while lower-probability options like qwen3.8-max trail on benchmark gaps. Any surprise announcement or major benchmark update before resolution remains the key swing factor.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBest AI model on August 24?
Best AI model on August 24?
claude-opus-5-max 78%
Other 15%
claude-opus-5-high 7%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 4.8%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
78%
Other
15%
claude-opus-5-high
7%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
5%
qwen3.8-max
3%
claude-opus-5-max 78%
Other 15%
claude-opus-5-high 7%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 4.8%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$369 Wol.
78%
Other
$0 Wol.
15%
claude-opus-5-high
$70 Wol.
7%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$47 Wol.
5%
qwen3.8-max
$0 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 is the main catalyst behind the 76% market-implied odds for claude-opus-5-max. The model delivers large gains in deep reasoning, agentic workflows, and long-horizon tasks while matching the price of Opus 4.8 and offering a 1-million-token context window plus native thinking at default settings. Traders view its balance of near-Fable 5 capability at lower cost as the decisive edge for the August 24 snapshot, especially with no competing frontier releases in the past two weeks. Variants such as claude-opus-5-high sit at 10% because they forgo the highest effort tier, while lower-probability options like qwen3.8-max trail on benchmark gaps. Any surprise announcement or major benchmark update before resolution remains the key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Wolumen
$486Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 is the main catalyst behind the 76% market-implied odds for claude-opus-5-max. The model delivers large gains in deep reasoning, agentic workflows, and long-horizon tasks while matching the price of Opus 4.8 and offering a 1-million-token context window plus native thinking at default settings. Traders view its balance of near-Fable 5 capability at lower cost as the decisive edge for the August 24 snapshot, especially with no competing frontier releases in the past two weeks. Variants such as claude-opus-5-high sit at 10% because they forgo the highest effort tier, while lower-probability options like qwen3.8-max trail on benchmark gaps. Any surprise announcement or major benchmark update before resolution remains the key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$486Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 is the main catalyst behind the 76% market-implied odds for claude-opus-5-max. The model delivers large gains in deep reasoning, agentic workflows, and long-horizon tasks while matching the price of Opus 4.8 and offering a 1-million-token context window plus native thinking at default settings. Traders view its balance of near-Fable 5 capability at lower cost as the decisive edge for the August 24 snapshot, especially with no competing frontier releases in the past two weeks. Variants such as claude-opus-5-high sit at 10% because they forgo the highest effort tier, while lower-probability options like qwen3.8-max trail on benchmark gaps. Any surprise announcement or major benchmark update before resolution remains the key swing factor.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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