Recent Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt to Aa1 in May 2025 aligned all three major agencies below AAA for the first time, citing persistent deficits, rising debt-to-GDP above 120 percent, and elevated interest costs absorbing nearly 20 percent of federal revenue. With ratings now at AA+/Aa1 levels and outlooks generally stable, agencies appear unlikely to act again absent sharp fiscal deterioration or governance shocks before 2027. Trader consensus reflected in the 69 percent “No” probability incorporates these post-downgrade alignments alongside ongoing debt-ceiling debates and reconciliation measures, while noting that further cuts would require material worsening beyond current trajectories priced into Treasury yields and agency communications. Key near-term catalysts include fiscal year 2027 budget outcomes and any renewed debt-limit standoffs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$10,860 Wol.
$10,860 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,860 Wol.
$10,860 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt to Aa1 in May 2025 aligned all three major agencies below AAA for the first time, citing persistent deficits, rising debt-to-GDP above 120 percent, and elevated interest costs absorbing nearly 20 percent of federal revenue. With ratings now at AA+/Aa1 levels and outlooks generally stable, agencies appear unlikely to act again absent sharp fiscal deterioration or governance shocks before 2027. Trader consensus reflected in the 69 percent “No” probability incorporates these post-downgrade alignments alongside ongoing debt-ceiling debates and reconciliation measures, while noting that further cuts would require material worsening beyond current trajectories priced into Treasury yields and agency communications. Key near-term catalysts include fiscal year 2027 budget outcomes and any renewed debt-limit standoffs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$10,860Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt to Aa1 in May 2025 aligned all three major agencies below AAA for the first time, citing persistent deficits, rising debt-to-GDP above 120 percent, and elevated interest costs absorbing nearly 20 percent of federal revenue. With ratings now at AA+/Aa1 levels and outlooks generally stable, agencies appear unlikely to act again absent sharp fiscal deterioration or governance shocks before 2027. Trader consensus reflected in the 69 percent “No” probability incorporates these post-downgrade alignments alongside ongoing debt-ceiling debates and reconciliation measures, while noting that further cuts would require material worsening beyond current trajectories priced into Treasury yields and agency communications. Key near-term catalysts include fiscal year 2027 budget outcomes and any renewed debt-limit standoffs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$10,860Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt to Aa1 in May 2025 aligned all three major agencies below AAA for the first time, citing persistent deficits, rising debt-to-GDP above 120 percent, and elevated interest costs absorbing nearly 20 percent of federal revenue. With ratings now at AA+/Aa1 levels and outlooks generally stable, agencies appear unlikely to act again absent sharp fiscal deterioration or governance shocks before 2027. Trader consensus reflected in the 69 percent “No” probability incorporates these post-downgrade alignments alongside ongoing debt-ceiling debates and reconciliation measures, while noting that further cuts would require material worsening beyond current trajectories priced into Treasury yields and agency communications. Key near-term catalysts include fiscal year 2027 budget outcomes and any renewed debt-limit standoffs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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