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icon for 上院は8月8日までに休会になりますか?

上院は8月8日までに休会になりますか?

icon for 上院は8月8日までに休会になりますか?

上院は8月8日までに休会になりますか?

はい

58% 確率
Polymarket
新規

はい

58% 確率
Polymarket
新規
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Senate begins a recess or adjournment of more than four calendar days by August 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For purposes of this market, the Senate will be considered to have begun a recess or adjournment when it adjourns or recesses with no legislative session or roll-call votes scheduled for the following three or more calendar days. A period during which the Senate convenes only pro forma sessions will count as a recess for purposes of this market. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Congressional Record, the official Senate floor schedule (senate.gov), and the actions of the Senate as recorded therein; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate's tentative 2026 calendar schedules a state work period beginning August 10, aligning with the longstanding pattern of an early-August summer recess ahead of the Labor Day holiday. As of July 31, leadership has not announced any extension of session, though Republican senators including Mike Lee have urged delaying adjournment to advance the SAVE America Act and other priorities. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signaled limited interest in canceling the break despite external calls to remain in session. These factors support the 62.5% trader consensus for recess by August 8, reflecting the default procedural timeline tempered by last-minute legislative maneuvering that could alter the exact start date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Senate begins a recess or adjournment of more than four calendar days by August 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For purposes of this market, the Senate will be considered to have begun a recess or adjournment when it adjourns or recesses with no legislative session or roll-call votes scheduled for the following three or more calendar days. A period during which the Senate convenes only pro forma sessions will count as a recess for purposes of this market.

The primary resolution sources for this market are the Congressional Record, the official Senate floor schedule (senate.gov), and the actions of the Senate as recorded therein; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$211
終了日
2026/08/08
マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Senate begins a recess or adjournment of more than four calendar days by August 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For purposes of this market, the Senate will be considered to have begun a recess or adjournment when it adjourns or recesses with no legislative session or roll-call votes scheduled for the following three or more calendar days. A period during which the Senate convenes only pro forma sessions will count as a recess for purposes of this market. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Congressional Record, the official Senate floor schedule (senate.gov), and the actions of the Senate as recorded therein; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Senate begins a recess or adjournment of more than four calendar days by August 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For purposes of this market, the Senate will be considered to have begun a recess or adjournment when it adjourns or recesses with no legislative session or roll-call votes scheduled for the following three or more calendar days. A period during which the Senate convenes only pro forma sessions will count as a recess for purposes of this market. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Congressional Record, the official Senate floor schedule (senate.gov), and the actions of the Senate as recorded therein; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate's tentative 2026 calendar schedules a state work period beginning August 10, aligning with the longstanding pattern of an early-August summer recess ahead of the Labor Day holiday. As of July 31, leadership has not announced any extension of session, though Republican senators including Mike Lee have urged delaying adjournment to advance the SAVE America Act and other priorities. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signaled limited interest in canceling the break despite external calls to remain in session. These factors support the 62.5% trader consensus for recess by August 8, reflecting the default procedural timeline tempered by last-minute legislative maneuvering that could alter the exact start date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Senate begins a recess or adjournment of more than four calendar days by August 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For purposes of this market, the Senate will be considered to have begun a recess or adjournment when it adjourns or recesses with no legislative session or roll-call votes scheduled for the following three or more calendar days. A period during which the Senate convenes only pro forma sessions will count as a recess for purposes of this market.

The primary resolution sources for this market are the Congressional Record, the official Senate floor schedule (senate.gov), and the actions of the Senate as recorded therein; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$211
終了日
2026/08/08
マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Senate begins a recess or adjournment of more than four calendar days by August 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For purposes of this market, the Senate will be considered to have begun a recess or adjournment when it adjourns or recesses with no legislative session or roll-call votes scheduled for the following three or more calendar days. A period during which the Senate convenes only pro forma sessions will count as a recess for purposes of this market. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Congressional Record, the official Senate floor schedule (senate.gov), and the actions of the Senate as recorded therein; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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よくある質問

「上院は8月8日までに休会になりますか?」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「上院は8月8日までに休会に入りますか?」で63%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、63¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に63%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「上院は8月8日までに休会になりますか?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Jul 29, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「上院は8月8日までに休会になりますか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「上院は8月8日までに休会になりますか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「上院は8月8日までに休会に入りますか?」で63%であり、市場がこの結果に63%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「上院は8月8日までに休会になりますか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。