Apple’s established annual September launch cadence for flagship iPhones drives the 98.6% market-implied probability of an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and analyst consensus confirm that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, along with a rumored foldable variant, remain on track for a September 2026 keynote and on-sale date shortly afterward. This aligns with Apple’s 15-year pattern of delivering new hardware each fall, supported by ongoing development of features like advanced silicon and camera systems. While traders acknowledge realistic risks such as minor supply-chain delays pushing the base iPhone 18 model into early 2027 or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, these factors are viewed as unlikely to eliminate any 2026 releases entirely given the advanced stage of production.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
99% 確率
$173,242 Vol.
$173,242 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
99% 確率
$173,242 Vol.
$173,242 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual September launch cadence for flagship iPhones drives the 98.6% market-implied probability of an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and analyst consensus confirm that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, along with a rumored foldable variant, remain on track for a September 2026 keynote and on-sale date shortly afterward. This aligns with Apple’s 15-year pattern of delivering new hardware each fall, supported by ongoing development of features like advanced silicon and camera systems. While traders acknowledge realistic risks such as minor supply-chain delays pushing the base iPhone 18 model into early 2027 or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, these factors are viewed as unlikely to eliminate any 2026 releases entirely given the advanced stage of production.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$173,242終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual September launch cadence for flagship iPhones drives the 98.6% market-implied probability of an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and analyst consensus confirm that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, along with a rumored foldable variant, remain on track for a September 2026 keynote and on-sale date shortly afterward. This aligns with Apple’s 15-year pattern of delivering new hardware each fall, supported by ongoing development of features like advanced silicon and camera systems. While traders acknowledge realistic risks such as minor supply-chain delays pushing the base iPhone 18 model into early 2027 or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, these factors are viewed as unlikely to eliminate any 2026 releases entirely given the advanced stage of production.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$173,242終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual September launch cadence for flagship iPhones drives the 98.6% market-implied probability of an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and analyst consensus confirm that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, along with a rumored foldable variant, remain on track for a September 2026 keynote and on-sale date shortly afterward. This aligns with Apple’s 15-year pattern of delivering new hardware each fall, supported by ongoing development of features like advanced silicon and camera systems. While traders acknowledge realistic risks such as minor supply-chain delays pushing the base iPhone 18 model into early 2027 or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, these factors are viewed as unlikely to eliminate any 2026 releases entirely given the advanced stage of production.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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