OpenAI’s confidential June 2026 SEC filing and subsequent reports of a potential 2027 IPO delay—driven by management’s reluctance to list below $1 trillion—form the core driver behind Polymarket’s closely matched implied probabilities, with the $1.25T–$1.5T and $1.0T–$1.25T brackets leading at 22.6% and 19.5%. The company’s March 2026 private round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation on roughly $25 billion annualized revenue, yet ongoing GAAP losses exceeding $30 billion annually and unproven profitability at scale create wide dispersion in trader views. Competitive AI model releases, capital expenditure intensity, and broader equity market multiples for high-growth tech further shape sentiment, producing balanced odds across the $1T–$1.75T range rather than strong consensus on any single outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1.25T–$1.5T 22.6%
$1.0T–$1.25T 20%
$1.75T–$2.0T 18%
$1.5T–$1.75T 15.3%
$62,224 Vol.
$62,224 Vol.
2027/07/01
<$1T
8%
$1.0T–$1.25T
20%
$1.25T–$1.5T
23%
$1.5T–$1.75T
15%
$1.75T–$2.0T
18%
$2.0T–$2.25T
6%
$2.25T–$2.5T
4%
$2.5T+
6%
$1.25T–$1.5T 22.6%
$1.0T–$1.25T 20%
$1.75T–$2.0T 18%
$1.5T–$1.75T 15.3%
$62,224 Vol.
$62,224 Vol.
2027/07/01
<$1T
$4,390 Vol.
8%
$1.0T–$1.25T
$7,129 Vol.
20%
$1.25T–$1.5T
$4,857 Vol.
23%
$1.5T–$1.75T
$3,395 Vol.
15%
$1.75T–$2.0T
$9,788 Vol.
18%
$2.0T–$2.25T
$1,998 Vol.
6%
$2.25T–$2.5T
$1,955 Vol.
4%
$2.5T+
$28,712 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s confidential June 2026 SEC filing and subsequent reports of a potential 2027 IPO delay—driven by management’s reluctance to list below $1 trillion—form the core driver behind Polymarket’s closely matched implied probabilities, with the $1.25T–$1.5T and $1.0T–$1.25T brackets leading at 22.6% and 19.5%. The company’s March 2026 private round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation on roughly $25 billion annualized revenue, yet ongoing GAAP losses exceeding $30 billion annually and unproven profitability at scale create wide dispersion in trader views. Competitive AI model releases, capital expenditure intensity, and broader equity market multiples for high-growth tech further shape sentiment, producing balanced odds across the $1T–$1.75T range rather than strong consensus on any single outcome.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
音量
$62,224終了日
2027/07/01マーケット開始日
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s confidential June 2026 SEC filing and subsequent reports of a potential 2027 IPO delay—driven by management’s reluctance to list below $1 trillion—form the core driver behind Polymarket’s closely matched implied probabilities, with the $1.25T–$1.5T and $1.0T–$1.25T brackets leading at 22.6% and 19.5%. The company’s March 2026 private round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation on roughly $25 billion annualized revenue, yet ongoing GAAP losses exceeding $30 billion annually and unproven profitability at scale create wide dispersion in trader views. Competitive AI model releases, capital expenditure intensity, and broader equity market multiples for high-growth tech further shape sentiment, producing balanced odds across the $1T–$1.75T range rather than strong consensus on any single outcome.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$62,224終了日
2027/07/01マーケット開始日
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s confidential June 2026 SEC filing and subsequent reports of a potential 2027 IPO delay—driven by management’s reluctance to list below $1 trillion—form the core driver behind Polymarket’s closely matched implied probabilities, with the $1.25T–$1.5T and $1.0T–$1.25T brackets leading at 22.6% and 19.5%. The company’s March 2026 private round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation on roughly $25 billion annualized revenue, yet ongoing GAAP losses exceeding $30 billion annually and unproven profitability at scale create wide dispersion in trader views. Competitive AI model releases, capital expenditure intensity, and broader equity market multiples for high-growth tech further shape sentiment, producing balanced odds across the $1T–$1.75T range rather than strong consensus on any single outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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