Apple's spatial computing headset roadmap has shifted sharply away from a full Vision Pro successor, with Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reporting that development remains on ice after the 2025 M5 refresh due to unresolved challenges in reducing weight and cost. Resources have been redirected toward AI-powered smart glasses targeted for late 2027, reflecting lukewarm demand for the high-priced mixed-reality device and leadership priorities under incoming CEO John Ternus. With September 2026 already here and no credible signals of a 2026 launch, trader consensus heavily favors no release before 2027. A surprise design breakthrough or redefinition of the product could theoretically accelerate timelines, though current supply-chain and internal reporting makes that highly unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
6% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's spatial computing headset roadmap has shifted sharply away from a full Vision Pro successor, with Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reporting that development remains on ice after the 2025 M5 refresh due to unresolved challenges in reducing weight and cost. Resources have been redirected toward AI-powered smart glasses targeted for late 2027, reflecting lukewarm demand for the high-priced mixed-reality device and leadership priorities under incoming CEO John Ternus. With September 2026 already here and no credible signals of a 2026 launch, trader consensus heavily favors no release before 2027. A surprise design breakthrough or redefinition of the product could theoretically accelerate timelines, though current supply-chain and internal reporting makes that highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
音量
$6,111終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's spatial computing headset roadmap has shifted sharply away from a full Vision Pro successor, with Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reporting that development remains on ice after the 2025 M5 refresh due to unresolved challenges in reducing weight and cost. Resources have been redirected toward AI-powered smart glasses targeted for late 2027, reflecting lukewarm demand for the high-priced mixed-reality device and leadership priorities under incoming CEO John Ternus. With September 2026 already here and no credible signals of a 2026 launch, trader consensus heavily favors no release before 2027. A surprise design breakthrough or redefinition of the product could theoretically accelerate timelines, though current supply-chain and internal reporting makes that highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,111終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Apple's spatial computing headset roadmap has shifted sharply away from a full Vision Pro successor, with Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reporting that development remains on ice after the 2025 M5 refresh due to unresolved challenges in reducing weight and cost. Resources have been redirected toward AI-powered smart glasses targeted for late 2027, reflecting lukewarm demand for the high-priced mixed-reality device and leadership priorities under incoming CEO John Ternus. With September 2026 already here and no credible signals of a 2026 launch, trader consensus heavily favors no release before 2027. A surprise design breakthrough or redefinition of the product could theoretically accelerate timelines, though current supply-chain and internal reporting makes that highly unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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