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icon for 11月末に最も優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?

11月末に最も優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?

icon for 11月末に最も優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?

11月末に最も優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?

Anthropic 59%

アリババ 33%

Z.ai 33%

Google 25%

Polymarket
新規

Anthropic 59%

アリババ 33%

Z.ai 33%

Google 25%

Polymarket
新規
icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$76 Vol.

59%

icon for アリババ

アリババ

$60 Vol.

33%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$50 Vol.

33%

icon for Google

Google

$80 Vol.

23%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$50 Vol.

25%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$58 Vol.

22%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$50 Vol.

20%

icon for 美団

美団

$50 Vol.

20%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$50 Vol.

19%

icon for テンセント

テンセント

$50 Vol.

19%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$60 Vol.

12%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$60 Vol.

12%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$60 Vol.

12%

icon for バイドゥ

バイドゥ

$58 Vol.

11%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$58 Vol.

10%

icon for アマゾン

アマゾン

$58 Vol.

10%

icon for マイクロソフト

マイクロソフト

$58 Vol.

10%

icon for Meta

Meta

$60 Vol.

8%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$60 Vol.

7%

icon for バイトダンス

バイトダンス

$71 Vol.

12%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$58 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment in this market at 58.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, currently tops independent leaderboards like BenchAlign with an 84.74 score, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (82.8) on reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks while offering a 1M-token context window. The crowded 45–55% tier reflects intense competition from recent September releases including Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and various Chinese models, yet none have displaced Anthropic’s edge in verified evaluations. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, further model updates, benchmark refreshes, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could shift consensus before end-of-November assessment.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$1,231
終了日
2026/12/01
マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment in this market at 58.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, currently tops independent leaderboards like BenchAlign with an 84.74 score, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (82.8) on reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks while offering a 1M-token context window. The crowded 45–55% tier reflects intense competition from recent September releases including Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and various Chinese models, yet none have displaced Anthropic’s edge in verified evaluations. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, further model updates, benchmark refreshes, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could shift consensus before end-of-November assessment.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$1,231
終了日
2026/12/01
マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x69c47De9D...

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「11月末に最も優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」はPolymarket上の21個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「Anthropic」で59%、次いで「Google」が23%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、59¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に59%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「11月末に最も優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です(Sep 17, 2026開始)。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「11月末に最も優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている21個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「11月末に最も優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「Anthropic」で59%であり、市場がこの結果に59%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「Google」で23%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「11月末に最も優れたAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。