Anthropic leads trader sentiment in this market at 58.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, currently tops independent leaderboards like BenchAlign with an 84.74 score, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (82.8) on reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks while offering a 1M-token context window. The crowded 45–55% tier reflects intense competition from recent September releases including Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and various Chinese models, yet none have displaced Anthropic’s edge in verified evaluations. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, further model updates, benchmark refreshes, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could shift consensus before end-of-November assessment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 59%
アリババ 33%
Z.ai 33%
Google 25%

Anthropic
59%

アリババ
33%

Z.ai
33%

23%

MiniMax
25%

Mistral
22%

OpenAI
20%

美団
20%

DeepSeek
19%

テンセント
19%

Moonshot
12%

Xiaomi
12%

Nvidia
12%

バイドゥ
11%

SpaceXAI
10%

アマゾン
10%

マイクロソフト
10%

Meta
8%

StepFun
7%

バイトダンス
12%

Thinky
3%
Anthropic 59%
アリババ 33%
Z.ai 33%
Google 25%

Anthropic
59%

アリババ
33%

Z.ai
33%

23%

MiniMax
25%

Mistral
22%

OpenAI
20%

美団
20%

DeepSeek
19%

テンセント
19%

Moonshot
12%

Xiaomi
12%

Nvidia
12%

バイドゥ
11%

SpaceXAI
10%

アマゾン
10%

マイクロソフト
10%

Meta
8%

StepFun
7%

バイトダンス
12%

Thinky
3%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment in this market at 58.5% implied probability because its Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, currently tops independent leaderboards like BenchAlign with an 84.74 score, outperforming OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (82.8) on reasoning, coding, and agentic benchmarks while offering a 1M-token context window. The crowded 45–55% tier reflects intense competition from recent September releases including Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and various Chinese models, yet none have displaced Anthropic’s edge in verified evaluations. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, further model updates, benchmark refreshes, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Google, or Meta could shift consensus before end-of-November assessment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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