Trader sentiment for the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a closely contested field, with Other and several contenders implied near 50% probability while OpenAI, SpaceXAI, Google, and others cluster around 26-27%. This balance reflects intense competition among large language model developers, where rapid capability gains, benchmark results, and ecosystem momentum differentiate leaders from challengers like Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek, and Moonshot. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and partnerships that could alter positioning. The market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments of these fast-evolving dynamics, though product timelines and technical surprises remain inherent uncertainties in the sector.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日OpenAI 23%
テンセント 22%
Meituan 21%
Anthropic 18%

OpenAI
23%

テンセント
22%

Meituan
21%

Anthropic
18%

アリババ
18%

Meta
16%

ByteDance
16%

14%

Baidu
14%

Xiaomi
14%

Nvidia
14%

Mistral
14%

StepFun
14%

SpaceXAI
13%

MiniMax
13%

Z.ai
13%

DeepSeek
12%

Microsoft
12%

Thinky
12%

ムーンショット
10%

アマゾン
8%
OpenAI 23%
テンセント 22%
Meituan 21%
Anthropic 18%

OpenAI
23%

テンセント
22%

Meituan
21%

Anthropic
18%

アリババ
18%

Meta
16%

ByteDance
16%

14%

Baidu
14%

Xiaomi
14%

Nvidia
14%

Mistral
14%

StepFun
14%

SpaceXAI
13%

MiniMax
13%

Z.ai
13%

DeepSeek
12%

Microsoft
12%

Thinky
12%

ムーンショット
10%

アマゾン
8%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a closely contested field, with Other and several contenders implied near 50% probability while OpenAI, SpaceXAI, Google, and others cluster around 26-27%. This balance reflects intense competition among large language model developers, where rapid capability gains, benchmark results, and ecosystem momentum differentiate leaders from challengers like Anthropic, Meta, DeepSeek, and Moonshot. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, developer conferences, and partnerships that could alter positioning. The market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments of these fast-evolving dynamics, though product timelines and technical surprises remain inherent uncertainties in the sector.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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