Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead recent polling ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, with Lula at roughly 40-42 percent and Flávio at 35-37 percent while other declared candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in the low single digits. The campaign officially began on August 16, and the first scheduled debate is set for August 23. With no candidate approaching a majority, traders are focused on whether any late surge by a third-place contender or shifts among undecided voters could alter the two-person runoff field scheduled for October 25. Lula benefits from incumbency and established party machinery, while Flávio draws on the established right-wing voter base.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$482,150 Vol.
2026/10/03
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルバ
96%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
93%
レナン・サントス
6%
ロメウ・ゼマ
3%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
1%
ロナウド・カイアド
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
1%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
1%
$482,150 Vol.
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルバ
$218,815 Vol.
96%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$48,887 Vol.
93%
レナン・サントス
$15,807 Vol.
6%
ロメウ・ゼマ
$610 Vol.
3%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$34,442 Vol.
1%
ロナウド・カイアド
$698 Vol.
1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$81,768 Vol.
1%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
$15,629 Vol.
1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$65,495 Vol.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead recent polling ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, with Lula at roughly 40-42 percent and Flávio at 35-37 percent while other declared candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in the low single digits. The campaign officially began on August 16, and the first scheduled debate is set for August 23. With no candidate approaching a majority, traders are focused on whether any late surge by a third-place contender or shifts among undecided voters could alter the two-person runoff field scheduled for October 25. Lula benefits from incumbency and established party machinery, while Flávio draws on the established right-wing voter base.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
音量
$482,150終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead recent polling ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, with Lula at roughly 40-42 percent and Flávio at 35-37 percent while other declared candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in the low single digits. The campaign officially began on August 16, and the first scheduled debate is set for August 23. With no candidate approaching a majority, traders are focused on whether any late surge by a third-place contender or shifts among undecided voters could alter the two-person runoff field scheduled for October 25. Lula benefits from incumbency and established party machinery, while Flávio draws on the established right-wing voter base.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$482,150終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead recent polling ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, with Lula at roughly 40-42 percent and Flávio at 35-37 percent while other declared candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in the low single digits. The campaign officially began on August 16, and the first scheduled debate is set for August 23. With no candidate approaching a majority, traders are focused on whether any late surge by a third-place contender or shifts among undecided voters could alter the two-person runoff field scheduled for October 25. Lula benefits from incumbency and established party machinery, while Flávio draws on the established right-wing voter base.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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