The June 2026 export-control dispute over Anthropic’s Mythos 5 and Fable 5 models, triggered by a reported jailbreak vulnerability in cybersecurity capabilities, was resolved within weeks through negotiated safeguards and Commerce Department approvals, fully restoring public and trusted-partner access by early July. No comparable interventions have occurred since, and Anthropic has aligned with federal protocols for future frontier model releases. Traders see strong precedent for continued access to any new 2026 releases absent fresh national-security findings. A sudden new vulnerability or policy shift could still prompt action, though current dynamics favor stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$30,754 Vol.
$30,754 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$30,754 Vol.
$30,754 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 export-control dispute over Anthropic’s Mythos 5 and Fable 5 models, triggered by a reported jailbreak vulnerability in cybersecurity capabilities, was resolved within weeks through negotiated safeguards and Commerce Department approvals, fully restoring public and trusted-partner access by early July. No comparable interventions have occurred since, and Anthropic has aligned with federal protocols for future frontier model releases. Traders see strong precedent for continued access to any new 2026 releases absent fresh national-security findings. A sudden new vulnerability or policy shift could still prompt action, though current dynamics favor stability.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 3, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
音量
$30,754終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 3, 2026, 5:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 export-control dispute over Anthropic’s Mythos 5 and Fable 5 models, triggered by a reported jailbreak vulnerability in cybersecurity capabilities, was resolved within weeks through negotiated safeguards and Commerce Department approvals, fully restoring public and trusted-partner access by early July. No comparable interventions have occurred since, and Anthropic has aligned with federal protocols for future frontier model releases. Traders see strong precedent for continued access to any new 2026 releases absent fresh national-security findings. A sudden new vulnerability or policy shift could still prompt action, though current dynamics favor stability.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$30,754終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 3, 2026, 5:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 export-control dispute over Anthropic’s Mythos 5 and Fable 5 models, triggered by a reported jailbreak vulnerability in cybersecurity capabilities, was resolved within weeks through negotiated safeguards and Commerce Department approvals, fully restoring public and trusted-partner access by early July. No comparable interventions have occurred since, and Anthropic has aligned with federal protocols for future frontier model releases. Traders see strong precedent for continued access to any new 2026 releases absent fresh national-security findings. A sudden new vulnerability or policy shift could still prompt action, though current dynamics favor stability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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