Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds an 85.9% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race on November 3, reflecting Texas's structural Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and historical statewide results, along with his established campaign organization and fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa. Recent July and August polls from Emerson College, the Texas A&M Bush School, and others show the general election tightening to leads of one to six points for Abbott, driven by Hinojosa's rising name recognition and her primary victory. Traders appear to discount these surveys in favor of the state's partisan baseline and Abbott's record as a three-term governor seeking a fourth term. Upcoming debates and economic issues such as energy policy remain variables that could influence voter sentiment before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$56,427 Vol.
$56,427 Vol.

グレッグ・アボット(共和党)
86%

ジーナ・ヒノホサ(民主党)
15%
$56,427 Vol.
$56,427 Vol.

グレッグ・アボット(共和党)
86%

ジーナ・ヒノホサ(民主党)
15%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds an 85.9% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race on November 3, reflecting Texas's structural Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and historical statewide results, along with his established campaign organization and fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa. Recent July and August polls from Emerson College, the Texas A&M Bush School, and others show the general election tightening to leads of one to six points for Abbott, driven by Hinojosa's rising name recognition and her primary victory. Traders appear to discount these surveys in favor of the state's partisan baseline and Abbott's record as a three-term governor seeking a fourth term. Upcoming debates and economic issues such as energy policy remain variables that could influence voter sentiment before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日


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