Recent Iranian Revolutionary Guard strikes on commercial tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including incidents reported on September 12 and 16–18, have sustained elevated maritime risk and pushed VLCC freight rates from the Middle East Gulf to China above $24 per barrel. Brent crude has traded above $90 amid repeated projectile attacks, prompting U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian-linked vessels and revocation of temporary export waivers. Traffic volumes remain roughly 90 percent below pre-conflict baselines, with independent tracking showing single-digit daily transits through higher-risk southern corridors; insurance premia and chartering costs now represent up to 25 percent of delivered crude value. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing IRGC enforcement of approved routes and any U.S. Central Command responses that could further tighten or ease flows through the 20 percent global oil transit chokepoint.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/09/18
9月18日
30%
9月19日
34%
9月20日
33%
9月21日
35%
9月22日
39%
9月23日
36%
9月24日
27%
9月25日
27%
9月26日
27%
9月27日
27%
9月28日
27%
9月29日
41%
9月30日
26%
$2,451 Vol.
9月18日
$60 Vol.
30%
9月19日
$92 Vol.
34%
9月20日
$222 Vol.
33%
9月21日
$1,118 Vol.
35%
9月22日
$458 Vol.
39%
9月23日
$132 Vol.
36%
9月24日
$0 Vol.
27%
9月25日
$0 Vol.
27%
9月26日
$0 Vol.
27%
9月27日
$0 Vol.
27%
9月28日
$0 Vol.
27%
9月29日
$370 Vol.
41%
9月30日
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.Recent Iranian Revolutionary Guard strikes on commercial tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including incidents reported on September 12 and 16–18, have sustained elevated maritime risk and pushed VLCC freight rates from the Middle East Gulf to China above $24 per barrel. Brent crude has traded above $90 amid repeated projectile attacks, prompting U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian-linked vessels and revocation of temporary export waivers. Traffic volumes remain roughly 90 percent below pre-conflict baselines, with independent tracking showing single-digit daily transits through higher-risk southern corridors; insurance premia and chartering costs now represent up to 25 percent of delivered crude value. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing IRGC enforcement of approved routes and any U.S. Central Command responses that could further tighten or ease flows through the 20 percent global oil transit chokepoint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
マーケット開始日： Sep 17, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
音量
$2,451終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 1:58 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.Recent Iranian Revolutionary Guard strikes on commercial tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including incidents reported on September 12 and 16–18, have sustained elevated maritime risk and pushed VLCC freight rates from the Middle East Gulf to China above $24 per barrel. Brent crude has traded above $90 amid repeated projectile attacks, prompting U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian-linked vessels and revocation of temporary export waivers. Traffic volumes remain roughly 90 percent below pre-conflict baselines, with independent tracking showing single-digit daily transits through higher-risk southern corridors; insurance premia and chartering costs now represent up to 25 percent of delivered crude value. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing IRGC enforcement of approved routes and any U.S. Central Command responses that could further tighten or ease flows through the 20 percent global oil transit chokepoint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
音量
$2,451終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 17, 2026, 1:58 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent Iranian Revolutionary Guard strikes on commercial tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including incidents reported on September 12 and 16–18, have sustained elevated maritime risk and pushed VLCC freight rates from the Middle East Gulf to China above $24 per barrel. Brent crude has traded above $90 amid repeated projectile attacks, prompting U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian-linked vessels and revocation of temporary export waivers. Traffic volumes remain roughly 90 percent below pre-conflict baselines, with independent tracking showing single-digit daily transits through higher-risk southern corridors; insurance premia and chartering costs now represent up to 25 percent of delivered crude value. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing IRGC enforcement of approved routes and any U.S. Central Command responses that could further tighten or ease flows through the 20 percent global oil transit chokepoint.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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