Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and capture of Mayun (Perim) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have heightened risks to commercial shipping lanes that handle 10-12% of global trade and serve as a critical alternative route for Saudi oil exports following Strait of Hormuz disruptions. These advances, paired with a declared naval blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, have driven freight costs between China and Saudi Arabia up 37% since late July, with traders pricing elevated volatility into energy and shipping benchmarks. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on continued kinetic strikes amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, though any de-escalation or successful interdiction could still shift probabilities before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$10,691 Vol.
2026/09/11
9月11日
4%
9月13日
15%
9月15日
27%
$10,691 Vol.
9月11日
$3,889 Vol.
4%
9月13日
$1,641 Vol.
15%
9月15日
$5,161 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and capture of Mayun (Perim) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have heightened risks to commercial shipping lanes that handle 10-12% of global trade and serve as a critical alternative route for Saudi oil exports following Strait of Hormuz disruptions. These advances, paired with a declared naval blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, have driven freight costs between China and Saudi Arabia up 37% since late July, with traders pricing elevated volatility into energy and shipping benchmarks. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on continued kinetic strikes amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, though any de-escalation or successful interdiction could still shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
マーケット開始日： Sep 10, 2026, 3:04 PM ET
音量
$10,691終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 10, 2026, 3:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and capture of Mayun (Perim) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have heightened risks to commercial shipping lanes that handle 10-12% of global trade and serve as a critical alternative route for Saudi oil exports following Strait of Hormuz disruptions. These advances, paired with a declared naval blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, have driven freight costs between China and Saudi Arabia up 37% since late July, with traders pricing elevated volatility into energy and shipping benchmarks. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on continued kinetic strikes amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, though any de-escalation or successful interdiction could still shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
音量
$10,691終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 10, 2026, 3:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and capture of Mayun (Perim) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have heightened risks to commercial shipping lanes that handle 10-12% of global trade and serve as a critical alternative route for Saudi oil exports following Strait of Hormuz disruptions. These advances, paired with a declared naval blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, have driven freight costs between China and Saudi Arabia up 37% since late July, with traders pricing elevated volatility into energy and shipping benchmarks. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus on continued kinetic strikes amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, though any de-escalation or successful interdiction could still shift probabilities before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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