Trader consensus shows a tight race for second-best AI agent lab by end of August, with OpenAI at 47.5% implied probability, Moonshot at 46%, and a broad field clustered near 26%. This reflects rapid iteration in agentic capabilities across labs, including tool integration, multi-step reasoning benchmarks, and autonomous task execution. Recent model releases and internal progress reports have prevented any single contender from pulling ahead, while competitive positioning against leaders like Anthropic and Google adds uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences, capability demonstrations, and potential open releases that could alter trader sentiment in the final weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日OpenAI 45%
Moonshot 44%
SpaceXAI 28%
ByteDance 28%

OpenAI
45%

Moonshot
44%

SpaceXAI
28%

ByteDance
28%

Microsoft
28%

DeepSeek
27%

Anthropic
26%

Z.ai
26%

Meta
26%

26%

Nvidia
26%

Baidu
26%

Amazon
26%

Mistral
26%

Meituan
26%

Alibaba
24%

Xiaomi
23%

MiniMax
22%
OpenAI 45%
Moonshot 44%
SpaceXAI 28%
ByteDance 28%

OpenAI
45%

Moonshot
44%

SpaceXAI
28%

ByteDance
28%

Microsoft
28%

DeepSeek
27%

Anthropic
26%

Z.ai
26%

Meta
26%

26%

Nvidia
26%

Baidu
26%

Amazon
26%

Mistral
26%

Meituan
26%

Alibaba
24%

Xiaomi
23%

MiniMax
22%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows a tight race for second-best AI agent lab by end of August, with OpenAI at 47.5% implied probability, Moonshot at 46%, and a broad field clustered near 26%. This reflects rapid iteration in agentic capabilities across labs, including tool integration, multi-step reasoning benchmarks, and autonomous task execution. Recent model releases and internal progress reports have prevented any single contender from pulling ahead, while competitive positioning against leaders like Anthropic and Google adds uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences, capability demonstrations, and potential open releases that could alter trader sentiment in the final weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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