Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores remain in pretrial detention in Brooklyn following their January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas on narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges carrying potential life sentences. Traders assign a slim majority probability to no prison time primarily because his September 2026 motions to dismiss the indictment on head-of-state immunity grounds—supported by arguments that no U.S. court has tried a recognized foreign leader—face oral argument in November, with prosecutors responding by early October. A June 2027 trial date leaves ample room for dismissal, acquittal, or negotiated resolution before any sentencing. The 33.5% share for 60-plus years reflects the serious nature of the allegations and historical precedent for lengthy drug-conspiracy terms if the case proceeds to conviction, while shorter ranges remain low-probability given the high-stakes procedural hurdles still ahead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日刑務所に入らない 51%
60年以上 34%
20年未満 10.0%
20～40 2.8%
$735,003 Vol.
$735,003 Vol.
2027/12/30
刑務所に入らない
51%
20年未満
10%
20～40
3%
40～60
1%
60年以上
34%
刑務所に入らない 51%
60年以上 34%
20年未満 10.0%
20～40 2.8%
$735,003 Vol.
$735,003 Vol.
2027/12/30
刑務所に入らない
$443,836 Vol.
51%
20年未満
$112,710 Vol.
10%
20～40
$59,966 Vol.
3%
40～60
$27,373 Vol.
1%
60年以上
$91,118 Vol.
34%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores remain in pretrial detention in Brooklyn following their January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas on narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges carrying potential life sentences. Traders assign a slim majority probability to no prison time primarily because his September 2026 motions to dismiss the indictment on head-of-state immunity grounds—supported by arguments that no U.S. court has tried a recognized foreign leader—face oral argument in November, with prosecutors responding by early October. A June 2027 trial date leaves ample room for dismissal, acquittal, or negotiated resolution before any sentencing. The 33.5% share for 60-plus years reflects the serious nature of the allegations and historical precedent for lengthy drug-conspiracy terms if the case proceeds to conviction, while shorter ranges remain low-probability given the high-stakes procedural hurdles still ahead.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
音量
$735,003終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores remain in pretrial detention in Brooklyn following their January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas on narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges carrying potential life sentences. Traders assign a slim majority probability to no prison time primarily because his September 2026 motions to dismiss the indictment on head-of-state immunity grounds—supported by arguments that no U.S. court has tried a recognized foreign leader—face oral argument in November, with prosecutors responding by early October. A June 2027 trial date leaves ample room for dismissal, acquittal, or negotiated resolution before any sentencing. The 33.5% share for 60-plus years reflects the serious nature of the allegations and historical precedent for lengthy drug-conspiracy terms if the case proceeds to conviction, while shorter ranges remain low-probability given the high-stakes procedural hurdles still ahead.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$735,003終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores remain in pretrial detention in Brooklyn following their January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas on narco-terrorism and cocaine-trafficking charges carrying potential life sentences. Traders assign a slim majority probability to no prison time primarily because his September 2026 motions to dismiss the indictment on head-of-state immunity grounds—supported by arguments that no U.S. court has tried a recognized foreign leader—face oral argument in November, with prosecutors responding by early October. A June 2027 trial date leaves ample room for dismissal, acquittal, or negotiated resolution before any sentencing. The 33.5% share for 60-plus years reflects the serious nature of the allegations and historical precedent for lengthy drug-conspiracy terms if the case proceeds to conviction, while shorter ranges remain low-probability given the high-stakes procedural hurdles still ahead.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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