**Traders assign an 82% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar facing conviction before 2027 because Canada's criminal courts move slowly on sexual assault cases amid persistent backlogs.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation; two earlier charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, with the first resolved via a peace bond. His January 2026 court appearance marked the start of proceedings, but full trials and resolutions routinely span well beyond a single calendar year. The August 2026 Toronto Life profile highlighted additional allegations without indicating any plea or verdict, reinforcing the view that procedural delays and defense preparations make a 2026 conviction unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine disclosure and preliminary hearings, with resolution criteria tied strictly to an official judgment by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ジャスティン・アギアは2027年以前に性的暴行で有罪判決を受けましたか？
ジャスティン・アギアは2027年以前に性的暴行で有罪判決を受けましたか？
はい
31% 確率
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
31% 確率
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
2026/12/31
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 82% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar facing conviction before 2027 because Canada's criminal courts move slowly on sexual assault cases amid persistent backlogs.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation; two earlier charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, with the first resolved via a peace bond. His January 2026 court appearance marked the start of proceedings, but full trials and resolutions routinely span well beyond a single calendar year. The August 2026 Toronto Life profile highlighted additional allegations without indicating any plea or verdict, reinforcing the view that procedural delays and defense preparations make a 2026 conviction unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine disclosure and preliminary hearings, with resolution criteria tied strictly to an official judgment by year-end.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
音量
$52,562終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 82% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar facing conviction before 2027 because Canada's criminal courts move slowly on sexual assault cases amid persistent backlogs.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation; two earlier charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, with the first resolved via a peace bond. His January 2026 court appearance marked the start of proceedings, but full trials and resolutions routinely span well beyond a single calendar year. The August 2026 Toronto Life profile highlighted additional allegations without indicating any plea or verdict, reinforcing the view that procedural delays and defense preparations make a 2026 conviction unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine disclosure and preliminary hearings, with resolution criteria tied strictly to an official judgment by year-end.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$52,562終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 82% implied probability to "No" on Justin Aguiar facing conviction before 2027 because Canada's criminal courts move slowly on sexual assault cases amid persistent backlogs.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation; two earlier charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, with the first resolved via a peace bond. His January 2026 court appearance marked the start of proceedings, but full trials and resolutions routinely span well beyond a single calendar year. The August 2026 Toronto Life profile highlighted additional allegations without indicating any plea or verdict, reinforcing the view that procedural delays and defense preparations make a 2026 conviction unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts remain limited to routine disclosure and preliminary hearings, with resolution criteria tied strictly to an official judgment by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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