The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell, citing “zero evidence” of wrongdoing related to Federal Reserve headquarters renovation testimony, underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability against incarceration before 2027. A federal judge earlier quashed subpoenas as politically motivated pretexts tied to rate-policy disputes rather than substantiated violations, consistent with the absence of any charges or indictments. Powell completed his term in May 2026 with no active proceedings, reinforcing trader consensus that institutional norms and evidentiary thresholds protect senior central bankers from such outcomes. Tail risks remain remote but include hypothetical new administration actions or unrelated matters surfacing post-tenure, though these lack supporting filings or precedent.