The October 27, 2026, Knesset election, set after the legislature dissolved in July, centers on Likud's established voter base and coalition experience under Benjamin Netanyahu versus the newer centrist Yashar party led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Trader consensus favors Likud at 63.5% because its organizational infrastructure, security-focused messaging amid ongoing regional conflicts, and historical ability to assemble governing coalitions outweigh recent Channel 12 surveys projecting Yashar as the single largest party with around 24 seats. Yashar at 33% reflects its appeal among moderates seeking alternatives, yet smaller parties remain marginal at 0.1% each due to threshold barriers and bloc fragmentation. Upcoming campaign events through October could still shift seat distributions and coalition math before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Likud 64%
Yashar 34%
Together <1%
Shas <1%
$198,092 Vol.
$198,092 Vol.
2026/10/27
Likud
64%
Yashar
34%
Together
<1%
Shas
<1%
The Democrats
<1%
Otzma Yehudit
<1%
Likud 64%
Yashar 34%
Together <1%
Shas <1%
$198,092 Vol.
$198,092 Vol.
2026/10/27
Likud
$89,125 Vol.
64%
Yashar
$47,556 Vol.
34%
Together
$30,110 Vol.
<1%
Shas
$9,633 Vol.
<1%
The Democrats
$10,263 Vol.
<1%
Otzma Yehudit
$11,405 Vol.
<1%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties:
- If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party.
Otherwise:
- If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list.
- If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.
The October 27, 2026, Knesset election, set after the legislature dissolved in July, centers on Likud's established voter base and coalition experience under Benjamin Netanyahu versus the newer centrist Yashar party led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Trader consensus favors Likud at 63.5% because its organizational infrastructure, security-focused messaging amid ongoing regional conflicts, and historical ability to assemble governing coalitions outweigh recent Channel 12 surveys projecting Yashar as the single largest party with around 24 seats. Yashar at 33% reflects its appeal among moderates seeking alternatives, yet smaller parties remain marginal at 0.1% each due to threshold barriers and bloc fragmentation. Upcoming campaign events through October could still shift seat distributions and coalition math before resolution.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties:
- If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party.
Otherwise:
- If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list.
- If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties:
- If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party.
Otherwise:
- If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list.
- If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.
マーケット開始日： May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
音量
$198,092終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties:
- If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party.
Otherwise:
- If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list.
- If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.
The October 27, 2026, Knesset election, set after the legislature dissolved in July, centers on Likud's established voter base and coalition experience under Benjamin Netanyahu versus the newer centrist Yashar party led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Trader consensus favors Likud at 63.5% because its organizational infrastructure, security-focused messaging amid ongoing regional conflicts, and historical ability to assemble governing coalitions outweigh recent Channel 12 surveys projecting Yashar as the single largest party with around 24 seats. Yashar at 33% reflects its appeal among moderates seeking alternatives, yet smaller parties remain marginal at 0.1% each due to threshold barriers and bloc fragmentation. Upcoming campaign events through October could still shift seat distributions and coalition math before resolution.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties:
- If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party.
Otherwise:
- If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list.
- If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties:
- If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party.
Otherwise:
- If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list.
- If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.
音量
$198,092終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The October 27, 2026, Knesset election, set after the legislature dissolved in July, centers on Likud's established voter base and coalition experience under Benjamin Netanyahu versus the newer centrist Yashar party led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Trader consensus favors Likud at 63.5% because its organizational infrastructure, security-focused messaging amid ongoing regional conflicts, and historical ability to assemble governing coalitions outweigh recent Channel 12 surveys projecting Yashar as the single largest party with around 24 seats. Yashar at 33% reflects its appeal among moderates seeking alternatives, yet smaller parties remain marginal at 0.1% each due to threshold barriers and bloc fragmentation. Upcoming campaign events through October could still shift seat distributions and coalition math before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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