Recent official forecasts and model consensus indicate that persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and flash flood risks in Zhengzhou on August 12 will limit solar insolation and surface heating, keeping the daily maximum near 25°C. Moisture advection from regional monsoon influences combined with northeasterly winds and an overcast frontal system further moderates peaks well below the typical August climatology of 30–33°C. This strong scientific alignment across sources such as the China Meteorological Administration, numerical weather prediction runs, and station observations underpins the 99.5% market-implied probability for 25°C. Clearer breaks in the cloud deck or shifts in steering patterns could allow brief warming, though such developments appear unlikely given the entrenched wet pattern.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月12日の鄭州の最高気温は?
25°C 99.5%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
32°C or higher <1%
$12,828 Vol.
$12,828 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
1%
25°C 99.5%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
32°C or higher <1%
$12,828 Vol.
$12,828 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/zhengzhou/ZHCC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts and model consensus indicate that persistent cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and flash flood risks in Zhengzhou on August 12 will limit solar insolation and surface heating, keeping the daily maximum near 25°C. Moisture advection from regional monsoon influences combined with northeasterly winds and an overcast frontal system further moderates peaks well below the typical August climatology of 30–33°C. This strong scientific alignment across sources such as the China Meteorological Administration, numerical weather prediction runs, and station observations underpins the 99.5% market-implied probability for 25°C. Clearer breaks in the cloud deck or shifts in steering patterns could allow brief warming, though such developments appear unlikely given the entrenched wet pattern.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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