Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a daily maximum of exactly 32°C on August 17, driving the market's 100% implied probability on that outcome. This aligns with typical late-summer conditions under prevailing subtropical high pressure, with limited cloud cover and moderate humidity allowing daytime peaks near the long-term August average. Model consensus and real-time station data converged on this value, leaving minimal room for revision. Traders viewed alternative thresholds as improbable given the absence of heat-wave anomalies or measurement discrepancies in preliminary reports. Only a rare post-hoc data correction or station-specific anomaly could alter resolution, though such events remain statistically uncommon in verified meteorological records.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月17日の香港の最高気温は?
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$168,423 Vol.
$168,423 Vol.
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$168,423 Vol.
$168,423 Vol.
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a daily maximum of exactly 32°C on August 17, driving the market's 100% implied probability on that outcome. This aligns with typical late-summer conditions under prevailing subtropical high pressure, with limited cloud cover and moderate humidity allowing daytime peaks near the long-term August average. Model consensus and real-time station data converged on this value, leaving minimal room for revision. Traders viewed alternative thresholds as improbable given the absence of heat-wave anomalies or measurement discrepancies in preliminary reports. Only a rare post-hoc data correction or station-specific anomaly could alter resolution, though such events remain statistically uncommon in verified meteorological records.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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