Elevated inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside persistent energy price pressures from Middle East supply shocks, underpins the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the December FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50%-3.75%. Solid GDP expansion, robust productivity, and stable unemployment have tempered urgency for immediate adjustment, though three dissents favoring a hike in July signal internal hawkishness. Futures markets price a modest path higher to around 3.8% by late 2026, aligning with the 29% odds of a 25 basis point increase. The September 15-16 and October 27-28 meetings, plus August CPI data due September 11, represent key catalysts that could shift these probabilities based on incoming inflation and labor readings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 61%
25 bps increase 29%
25 bps decrease 9.2%
50+ bps increase 2.8%
$278,283 Vol.
$278,283 Vol.
2026/12/09
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
9%
変更なし
61%
25 bps increase
29%
50+ bps increase
3%
変更なし 61%
25 bps increase 29%
25 bps decrease 9.2%
50+ bps increase 2.8%
$278,283 Vol.
$278,283 Vol.
2026/12/09
50+ bps decrease
$52,094 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$60,838 Vol.
9%
変更なし
$50,033 Vol.
61%
25 bps increase
$57,512 Vol.
29%
50+ bps increase
$57,806 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside persistent energy price pressures from Middle East supply shocks, underpins the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the December FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50%-3.75%. Solid GDP expansion, robust productivity, and stable unemployment have tempered urgency for immediate adjustment, though three dissents favoring a hike in July signal internal hawkishness. Futures markets price a modest path higher to around 3.8% by late 2026, aligning with the 29% odds of a 25 basis point increase. The September 15-16 and October 27-28 meetings, plus August CPI data due September 11, represent key catalysts that could shift these probabilities based on incoming inflation and labor readings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
音量
$278,283終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside persistent energy price pressures from Middle East supply shocks, underpins the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the December FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50%-3.75%. Solid GDP expansion, robust productivity, and stable unemployment have tempered urgency for immediate adjustment, though three dissents favoring a hike in July signal internal hawkishness. Futures markets price a modest path higher to around 3.8% by late 2026, aligning with the 29% odds of a 25 basis point increase. The September 15-16 and October 27-28 meetings, plus August CPI data due September 11, represent key catalysts that could shift these probabilities based on incoming inflation and labor readings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$278,283終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, alongside persistent energy price pressures from Middle East supply shocks, underpins the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the December FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50%-3.75%. Solid GDP expansion, robust productivity, and stable unemployment have tempered urgency for immediate adjustment, though three dissents favoring a hike in July signal internal hawkishness. Futures markets price a modest path higher to around 3.8% by late 2026, aligning with the 29% odds of a 25 basis point increase. The September 15-16 and October 27-28 meetings, plus August CPI data due September 11, represent key catalysts that could shift these probabilities based on incoming inflation and labor readings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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