Apple’s decision to split its iPhone 18 lineup across two launch windows is the main driver behind current market-implied odds for the base model’s release. At the September 9, 2026 event, the company unveiled only the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Duo, confirming earlier supply-chain reports from analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo and supplier Largan Precision that the standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 would shift to spring 2027. This change stems from an expanded six-model portfolio, memory and 2nm A20 chip constraints, and a strategic push toward higher-margin premium devices. Traders are now watching for any March 2027 announcement signals or unexpected acceleration that could still alter the timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2027/02/28
2027年2月28日
32%
2027年3月31日
74%
2027年4月30日
81%
$192 Vol.
2027年2月28日
$104 Vol.
32%
2027年3月31日
$88 Vol.
74%
2027年4月30日
$0 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to split its iPhone 18 lineup across two launch windows is the main driver behind current market-implied odds for the base model’s release. At the September 9, 2026 event, the company unveiled only the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Duo, confirming earlier supply-chain reports from analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo and supplier Largan Precision that the standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 would shift to spring 2027. This change stems from an expanded six-model portfolio, memory and 2nm A20 chip constraints, and a strategic push toward higher-margin premium devices. Traders are now watching for any March 2027 announcement signals or unexpected acceleration that could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Sep 18, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
音量
$192終了日
2027/05/01マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2026, 5:52 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to split its iPhone 18 lineup across two launch windows is the main driver behind current market-implied odds for the base model’s release. At the September 9, 2026 event, the company unveiled only the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Duo, confirming earlier supply-chain reports from analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo and supplier Largan Precision that the standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 would shift to spring 2027. This change stems from an expanded six-model portfolio, memory and 2nm A20 chip constraints, and a strategic push toward higher-margin premium devices. Traders are now watching for any March 2027 announcement signals or unexpected acceleration that could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$192終了日
2027/05/01マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2026, 5:52 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Apple’s decision to split its iPhone 18 lineup across two launch windows is the main driver behind current market-implied odds for the base model’s release. At the September 9, 2026 event, the company unveiled only the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable iPhone Duo, confirming earlier supply-chain reports from analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo and supplier Largan Precision that the standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and iPhone Air 2 would shift to spring 2027. This change stems from an expanded six-model portfolio, memory and 2nm A20 chip constraints, and a strategic push toward higher-margin premium devices. Traders are now watching for any March 2027 announcement signals or unexpected acceleration that could still alter the timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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