The MS-02 general election on November 3 pits incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson against Republican Ron Eller in a district with a long-standing Democratic lean and PVI near D+11. Thompson secured the nomination decisively in the March primary, while Eller prevailed in a close GOP contest, leaving the general-election dynamics largely unchanged since spring. Traders price narrow margins between 35-45% and wider ones in similar ranges near even money, reflecting historical results in the low-to-mid 60s for the Democrat alongside limited recent polling or campaign spending data to refine the exact spread. Low overall volume and the absence of late-breaking events such as scandals, health developments, or major endorsements keep multiple buckets clustered together. A stronger-than-expected Republican turnout push or unexpected Democratic drop-off could widen the gap and shift pricing, while routine GOTV efforts in the Delta and Jackson areas are unlikely to produce separation before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMS-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
MS-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Democrat 45%+ 38%
Democrat 35-40% 38%
Democrat 40-45% 37%
Democrat 25-30% 37%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrat 45%+
38%
Democrat 40-45%
37%
Democrat 35-40%
38%
Democrat 30-35%
37%
Democrat 25-30%
37%
Democrat 20-25%
37%
Democrat 15-20%
37%
Democrat 5-15%
37%
Democrat 0-5%
37%
Republican Wins
18%
Democrat 45%+ 38%
Democrat 35-40% 38%
Democrat 40-45% 37%
Democrat 25-30% 37%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrat 45%+
$0 Vol.
38%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 Vol.
38%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 5-15%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican Wins
$0 Vol.
18%
The first round of the 2026 MS-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MS-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The MS-02 general election on November 3 pits incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson against Republican Ron Eller in a district with a long-standing Democratic lean and PVI near D+11. Thompson secured the nomination decisively in the March primary, while Eller prevailed in a close GOP contest, leaving the general-election dynamics largely unchanged since spring. Traders price narrow margins between 35-45% and wider ones in similar ranges near even money, reflecting historical results in the low-to-mid 60s for the Democrat alongside limited recent polling or campaign spending data to refine the exact spread. Low overall volume and the absence of late-breaking events such as scandals, health developments, or major endorsements keep multiple buckets clustered together. A stronger-than-expected Republican turnout push or unexpected Democratic drop-off could widen the gap and shift pricing, while routine GOTV efforts in the Delta and Jackson areas are unlikely to produce separation before Election Day.
The first round of the 2026 MS-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MS-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MS-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 10, 2026, 11:57 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 MS-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MS-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The MS-02 general election on November 3 pits incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson against Republican Ron Eller in a district with a long-standing Democratic lean and PVI near D+11. Thompson secured the nomination decisively in the March primary, while Eller prevailed in a close GOP contest, leaving the general-election dynamics largely unchanged since spring. Traders price narrow margins between 35-45% and wider ones in similar ranges near even money, reflecting historical results in the low-to-mid 60s for the Democrat alongside limited recent polling or campaign spending data to refine the exact spread. Low overall volume and the absence of late-breaking events such as scandals, health developments, or major endorsements keep multiple buckets clustered together. A stronger-than-expected Republican turnout push or unexpected Democratic drop-off could widen the gap and shift pricing, while routine GOTV efforts in the Delta and Jackson areas are unlikely to produce separation before Election Day.
The first round of the 2026 MS-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MS-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MS-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The MS-02 general election on November 3 pits incumbent Democrat Bennie Thompson against Republican Ron Eller in a district with a long-standing Democratic lean and PVI near D+11. Thompson secured the nomination decisively in the March primary, while Eller prevailed in a close GOP contest, leaving the general-election dynamics largely unchanged since spring. Traders price narrow margins between 35-45% and wider ones in similar ranges near even money, reflecting historical results in the low-to-mid 60s for the Democrat alongside limited recent polling or campaign spending data to refine the exact spread. Low overall volume and the absence of late-breaking events such as scandals, health developments, or major endorsements keep multiple buckets clustered together. A stronger-than-expected Republican turnout push or unexpected Democratic drop-off could widen the gap and shift pricing, while routine GOTV efforts in the Delta and Jackson areas are unlikely to produce separation before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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