Forecast consensus around 80–83°F drives the tight 36.5%–34.5% split between those bins, reflecting model uncertainty in Miami’s overnight minimum amid typical August subtropical conditions. High humidity and frequent cloud cover from sea-breeze convergence and scattered thunderstorms limit radiative cooling, keeping lows near or slightly above the long-term 78–81°F climatological range; subtle differences in timing of any showers or wind shifts can shift the actual low by 1–2°F. National Weather Service and NOAA guidance currently point to partly cloudy skies with lows near 80–82°F, though afternoon instability updates on August 13 could refine that range before the overnight period.