Recent numerical weather prediction runs from Météo-France and ECMWF show a strong high-pressure ridge advecting warm subtropical air over northern France, positioning Paris for a daily maximum near 38°C on August 13. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 37–39°C, with limited spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects at the official Paris-Le Bourget station. This warm anomaly aligns with the ongoing positive temperature trend observed across western Europe this summer and exceeds the long-term August climatology of 24–26°C. Traders have therefore assigned the highest implied probability to 38°C, while still pricing modest risk of a 1°C forecast adjustment from the final 12–24-hour model updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Parigi il 13 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Parigi il 13 agosto?
38°C 47%
37°C 28%
39°C 11%
36°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
13 ago 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
9%
37°C
28%
38°C
47%
39°C
11%
40°C
4%
41°C
1%
42°C or higher
<1%
38°C 47%
37°C 28%
39°C 11%
36°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
13 ago 2026
32°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$351 Vol.
1%
35°C
$8 Vol.
4%
36°C
$139 Vol.
9%
37°C
$71 Vol.
28%
38°C
$259 Vol.
47%
39°C
$20 Vol.
11%
40°C
$9 Vol.
4%
41°C
$27 Vol.
1%
42°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from Météo-France and ECMWF show a strong high-pressure ridge advecting warm subtropical air over northern France, positioning Paris for a daily maximum near 38°C on August 13. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 37–39°C, with limited spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects at the official Paris-Le Bourget station. This warm anomaly aligns with the ongoing positive temperature trend observed across western Europe this summer and exceeds the long-term August climatology of 24–26°C. Traders have therefore assigned the highest implied probability to 38°C, while still pricing modest risk of a 1°C forecast adjustment from the final 12–24-hour model updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$919Data di fine
13 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from Météo-France and ECMWF show a strong high-pressure ridge advecting warm subtropical air over northern France, positioning Paris for a daily maximum near 38°C on August 13. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 37–39°C, with limited spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects at the official Paris-Le Bourget station. This warm anomaly aligns with the ongoing positive temperature trend observed across western Europe this summer and exceeds the long-term August climatology of 24–26°C. Traders have therefore assigned the highest implied probability to 38°C, while still pricing modest risk of a 1°C forecast adjustment from the final 12–24-hour model updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$919Data di fine
13 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 1:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction runs from Météo-France and ECMWF show a strong high-pressure ridge advecting warm subtropical air over northern France, positioning Paris for a daily maximum near 38°C on August 13. Ensemble guidance clusters tightly around 37–39°C, with limited spread reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects at the official Paris-Le Bourget station. This warm anomaly aligns with the ongoing positive temperature trend observed across western Europe this summer and exceeds the long-term August climatology of 24–26°C. Traders have therefore assigned the highest implied probability to 38°C, while still pricing modest risk of a 1°C forecast adjustment from the final 12–24-hour model updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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