Recent ensemble forecasts from Chinese Meteorological Administration models and international guidance indicate a peak temperature near 35–36°C for Chengdu on August 11, driven by the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high and moderate southerly flow that favors daytime heating under partly cloudy skies. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on model spread in predicted cloud cover, afternoon convection timing, and boundary-layer moisture, which can alter the diurnal temperature range by 1–2°C. Climatologically, August highs in the Sichuan Basin average near 30–32°C but trend 2–4°C above normal this summer amid broader anomalous warmth across southern China. Updated short-range runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.