**The market for Chicago’s lowest temperature on September 4, 2026, shows strong trader consensus around 76–77°F (74.5% implied probability), with 74–75°F also heavily favored (47%).** This positioning directly reflects the official National Weather Service observation at Chicago O’Hare: a daily minimum of 76°F recorded at 5:52 a.m. CDT, following a maximum of 92°F later that afternoon. Persistent warmth stemmed from an elevated dew point (around 73°F) and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, with light southwest-to-northeast winds preventing significant temperature drops. These conditions produced a +14°F departure from the 1991–2020 normal low of 62°F. Recent days featured similarly elevated minima in the upper 70s amid a broad warm air mass, reducing the chance of rapid overnight cooling. Traders priced in the heat-wave persistence and model consensus on minimal frontal passage, resulting in near-zero probability for cooler bins below 70°F. Official NWS climatological summaries and hourly observations confirmed the 76°F floor, aligning precisely with the leading market outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Chicago il 4 settembre?
La temperatura più bassa a Chicago il 4 settembre?
76-77°F 97%
67°F o inferiore 42%
68-69°F 25%
70-71°F 2%
$2,010 Vol.
$2,010 Vol.
4 set 2026
67°F o inferiore
42%
68-69°F
25%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
47%
76-77°F
75%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F o superiore
<1%
76-77°F 97%
67°F o inferiore 42%
68-69°F 25%
70-71°F 2%
$2,010 Vol.
$2,010 Vol.
4 set 2026
67°F o inferiore
$75 Vol.
42%
68-69°F
$27 Vol.
25%
70-71°F
$27 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$15 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$26 Vol.
47%
76-77°F
$39 Vol.
75%
78-79°F
$1,174 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$162 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$107 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$97 Vol.
<1%
86°F o superiore
$262 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The market for Chicago’s lowest temperature on September 4, 2026, shows strong trader consensus around 76–77°F (74.5% implied probability), with 74–75°F also heavily favored (47%).** This positioning directly reflects the official National Weather Service observation at Chicago O’Hare: a daily minimum of 76°F recorded at 5:52 a.m. CDT, following a maximum of 92°F later that afternoon.
Persistent warmth stemmed from an elevated dew point (around 73°F) and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, with light southwest-to-northeast winds preventing significant temperature drops. These conditions produced a +14°F departure from the 1991–2020 normal low of 62°F. Recent days featured similarly elevated minima in the upper 70s amid a broad warm air mass, reducing the chance of rapid overnight cooling.
Traders priced in the heat-wave persistence and model consensus on minimal frontal passage, resulting in near-zero probability for cooler bins below 70°F. Official NWS climatological summaries and hourly observations confirmed the 76°F floor, aligning precisely with the leading market outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,010Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The market for Chicago’s lowest temperature on September 4, 2026, shows strong trader consensus around 76–77°F (74.5% implied probability), with 74–75°F also heavily favored (47%).** This positioning directly reflects the official National Weather Service observation at Chicago O’Hare: a daily minimum of 76°F recorded at 5:52 a.m. CDT, following a maximum of 92°F later that afternoon.
Persistent warmth stemmed from an elevated dew point (around 73°F) and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, with light southwest-to-northeast winds preventing significant temperature drops. These conditions produced a +14°F departure from the 1991–2020 normal low of 62°F. Recent days featured similarly elevated minima in the upper 70s amid a broad warm air mass, reducing the chance of rapid overnight cooling.
Traders priced in the heat-wave persistence and model consensus on minimal frontal passage, resulting in near-zero probability for cooler bins below 70°F. Official NWS climatological summaries and hourly observations confirmed the 76°F floor, aligning precisely with the leading market outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,010Data di fine
4 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**The market for Chicago’s lowest temperature on September 4, 2026, shows strong trader consensus around 76–77°F (74.5% implied probability), with 74–75°F also heavily favored (47%).** This positioning directly reflects the official National Weather Service observation at Chicago O’Hare: a daily minimum of 76°F recorded at 5:52 a.m. CDT, following a maximum of 92°F later that afternoon. Persistent warmth stemmed from an elevated dew point (around 73°F) and limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, with light southwest-to-northeast winds preventing significant temperature drops. These conditions produced a +14°F departure from the 1991–2020 normal low of 62°F. Recent days featured similarly elevated minima in the upper 70s amid a broad warm air mass, reducing the chance of rapid overnight cooling. Traders priced in the heat-wave persistence and model consensus on minimal frontal passage, resulting in near-zero probability for cooler bins below 70°F. Official NWS climatological summaries and hourly observations confirmed the 76°F floor, aligning precisely with the leading market outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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