The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.25% as of early September 2026, elevated by heavy fiscal supply, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and deficits near 5.8% of GDP. Rising term premium reflects reduced demand from traditional buyers amid record Treasury issuance and competing corporate borrowing, particularly for AI infrastructure. Real yields account for most of the recent move higher, while inflation breakevens have remained stable. Resilient growth and a higher-for-longer Fed policy stance have limited downside, with markets pricing modest rate-hike risks. Treasury buyback expansions have provided only temporary relief. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, CPI releases, and long-bond auctions that will test whether yields can sustain moves below current levels before year-end 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
30 dic 2026
Sotto il 5,20%
59%
Sotto il 5,15%
62%
Sotto il 5,10%
50%
Sotto 5,05%
50%
Sotto il 5,00%
50%
Sotto il 4,95%
50%
Sotto il 4,90%
49%
Sotto il 4,80%
47%
Sotto il 4,60%
39%
$0.00 Vol.
Sotto il 5,20%
$0 Vol.
59%
Sotto il 5,15%
$0 Vol.
62%
Sotto il 5,10%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto 5,05%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 5,00%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 4,95%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 4,90%
$0 Vol.
49%
Sotto il 4,80%
$0 Vol.
47%
Sotto il 4,60%
$0 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.25% as of early September 2026, elevated by heavy fiscal supply, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and deficits near 5.8% of GDP. Rising term premium reflects reduced demand from traditional buyers amid record Treasury issuance and competing corporate borrowing, particularly for AI infrastructure. Real yields account for most of the recent move higher, while inflation breakevens have remained stable. Resilient growth and a higher-for-longer Fed policy stance have limited downside, with markets pricing modest rate-hike risks. Treasury buyback expansions have provided only temporary relief. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, CPI releases, and long-bond auctions that will test whether yields can sustain moves below current levels before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.25% as of early September 2026, elevated by heavy fiscal supply, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and deficits near 5.8% of GDP. Rising term premium reflects reduced demand from traditional buyers amid record Treasury issuance and competing corporate borrowing, particularly for AI infrastructure. Real yields account for most of the recent move higher, while inflation breakevens have remained stable. Resilient growth and a higher-for-longer Fed policy stance have limited downside, with markets pricing modest rate-hike risks. Treasury buyback expansions have provided only temporary relief. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, CPI releases, and long-bond auctions that will test whether yields can sustain moves below current levels before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The 30-year Treasury yield stands near 5.25% as of early September 2026, elevated by heavy fiscal supply, with federal debt exceeding $40 trillion and deficits near 5.8% of GDP. Rising term premium reflects reduced demand from traditional buyers amid record Treasury issuance and competing corporate borrowing, particularly for AI infrastructure. Real yields account for most of the recent move higher, while inflation breakevens have remained stable. Resilient growth and a higher-for-longer Fed policy stance have limited downside, with markets pricing modest rate-hike risks. Treasury buyback expansions have provided only temporary relief. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, CPI releases, and long-bond auctions that will test whether yields can sustain moves below current levels before year-end 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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