Recent developments show the 30-year Treasury yield holding near 5.24% as of early September 2026, its highest sustained levels since 2007, driven primarily by elevated term premiums amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt, projected 2026 deficits near 6% of GDP, and heavy coupon supply. Price-sensitive private investors now dominate demand, while corporate issuance for AI infrastructure competes for long-duration capital. Offsetting forces include gradual labor market cooling and signs of disinflation that could support modest Fed easing later in 2026, though markets price limited cuts against a higher-for-longer policy stance. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and employment releases, and Treasury buyback execution, all of which could influence the lowest yield level reached before year-end 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
30 dic 2026
Sotto il 5,20%
61%
Sotto il 5,15%
61%
Sotto il 5,10%
50%
Sotto 5,05%
50%
Sotto il 5,00%
50%
Sotto il 4,95%
50%
Sotto il 4,90%
46%
Sotto il 4,80%
47%
Sotto il 4,60%
38%
$0.00 Vol.
Sotto il 5,20%
$0 Vol.
61%
Sotto il 5,15%
$0 Vol.
61%
Sotto il 5,10%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto 5,05%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 5,00%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 4,95%
$0 Vol.
50%
Sotto il 4,90%
$0 Vol.
46%
Sotto il 4,80%
$0 Vol.
47%
Sotto il 4,60%
$0 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent developments show the 30-year Treasury yield holding near 5.24% as of early September 2026, its highest sustained levels since 2007, driven primarily by elevated term premiums amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt, projected 2026 deficits near 6% of GDP, and heavy coupon supply. Price-sensitive private investors now dominate demand, while corporate issuance for AI infrastructure competes for long-duration capital. Offsetting forces include gradual labor market cooling and signs of disinflation that could support modest Fed easing later in 2026, though markets price limited cuts against a higher-for-longer policy stance. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and employment releases, and Treasury buyback execution, all of which could influence the lowest yield level reached before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent developments show the 30-year Treasury yield holding near 5.24% as of early September 2026, its highest sustained levels since 2007, driven primarily by elevated term premiums amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt, projected 2026 deficits near 6% of GDP, and heavy coupon supply. Price-sensitive private investors now dominate demand, while corporate issuance for AI infrastructure competes for long-duration capital. Offsetting forces include gradual labor market cooling and signs of disinflation that could support modest Fed easing later in 2026, though markets price limited cuts against a higher-for-longer policy stance. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and employment releases, and Treasury buyback execution, all of which could influence the lowest yield level reached before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent developments show the 30-year Treasury yield holding near 5.24% as of early September 2026, its highest sustained levels since 2007, driven primarily by elevated term premiums amid $40 trillion-plus federal debt, projected 2026 deficits near 6% of GDP, and heavy coupon supply. Price-sensitive private investors now dominate demand, while corporate issuance for AI infrastructure competes for long-duration capital. Offsetting forces include gradual labor market cooling and signs of disinflation that could support modest Fed easing later in 2026, though markets price limited cuts against a higher-for-longer policy stance. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and employment releases, and Treasury buyback execution, all of which could influence the lowest yield level reached before year-end 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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