Elevated US fiscal deficits and record Treasury issuance exceeding $40 trillion in debt have driven the 30-year yield to 5.24% as of September 4, 2026, with peaks near 5.34% in August—the highest since 2007. Traders price in a higher term premium as private investors absorb supply amid reduced official-sector demand, compounded by heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure and sticky inflation readings. The Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50–3.75% policy rate under Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside mixed signals on future hikes, has reinforced real-rate pressures. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and Treasury auction sizes that could further test long-end levels before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
30 dic 2026
6,00%
39%
5,80%
50%
5,70%
50%
5,65%
50%
5,60%
50%
5,55%
50%
5,50%
51%
5,45%
61%
5,40%
64%
$0.00 Vol.
6,00%
$0 Vol.
39%
5,80%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,70%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,65%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,60%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,55%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,50%
$0 Vol.
51%
5,45%
$0 Vol.
61%
5,40%
$0 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Elevated US fiscal deficits and record Treasury issuance exceeding $40 trillion in debt have driven the 30-year yield to 5.24% as of September 4, 2026, with peaks near 5.34% in August—the highest since 2007. Traders price in a higher term premium as private investors absorb supply amid reduced official-sector demand, compounded by heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure and sticky inflation readings. The Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50–3.75% policy rate under Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside mixed signals on future hikes, has reinforced real-rate pressures. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and Treasury auction sizes that could further test long-end levels before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Elevated US fiscal deficits and record Treasury issuance exceeding $40 trillion in debt have driven the 30-year yield to 5.24% as of September 4, 2026, with peaks near 5.34% in August—the highest since 2007. Traders price in a higher term premium as private investors absorb supply amid reduced official-sector demand, compounded by heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure and sticky inflation readings. The Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50–3.75% policy rate under Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside mixed signals on future hikes, has reinforced real-rate pressures. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and Treasury auction sizes that could further test long-end levels before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Elevated US fiscal deficits and record Treasury issuance exceeding $40 trillion in debt have driven the 30-year yield to 5.24% as of September 4, 2026, with peaks near 5.34% in August—the highest since 2007. Traders price in a higher term premium as private investors absorb supply amid reduced official-sector demand, compounded by heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure and sticky inflation readings. The Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50–3.75% policy rate under Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside mixed signals on future hikes, has reinforced real-rate pressures. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and Treasury auction sizes that could further test long-end levels before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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