Current short-term forecasts from MetService and supporting models point to a daily maximum near 10°C in Wellington on August 6, driven by a southerly airstream advecting cooler sub-Antarctic air masses typical of midwinter. NIWA’s seasonal outlook favors near-average temperatures overall, consistent with historical August highs of 12–13°C, yet the immediate pattern of showers clearing under southerlies introduces downward bias and day-to-day variability from frontal passages. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 9–12°C range, with 11°C emerging as the market favorite because traders weight both the baseline climatology and residual uncertainty in wind direction and cloud cover. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.