Recent MetService and Met Office guidance projects a 15°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 25 under mainly fine conditions with northwesterly flow, which is advecting milder maritime air across Cook Strait and producing a modest positive anomaly relative to the August climatological average of roughly 13°C. This consensus supports the market’s elevated implied probabilities on 16°C and 17°C outcomes, as traders incorporate typical 1–2°C uncertainty ranges arising from localized sheltering, brief clearing, or orographic effects near the harbor. NIWA’s seasonal outlook indicates temperatures are equally likely to finish near or above average for the Wellington region, consistent with current model runs but leaving room for revisions ahead of the event. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping trader focus on the next updated model suite and final observational verification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Wellington il 25 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Wellington il 25 agosto?
16°C 50%
17°C 24%
15°C 18%
14°C 4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
25 ago 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
4%
15°C
18%
16°C
50%
17°C
24%
18°C
4%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
1%
16°C 50%
17°C 24%
15°C 18%
14°C 4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
25 ago 2026
10°C or below
$239 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$252 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$281 Vol.
4%
15°C
$1,301 Vol.
18%
16°C
$650 Vol.
50%
17°C
$569 Vol.
24%
18°C
$342 Vol.
4%
19°C
$5 Vol.
3%
20°C or higher
$669 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and Met Office guidance projects a 15°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 25 under mainly fine conditions with northwesterly flow, which is advecting milder maritime air across Cook Strait and producing a modest positive anomaly relative to the August climatological average of roughly 13°C. This consensus supports the market’s elevated implied probabilities on 16°C and 17°C outcomes, as traders incorporate typical 1–2°C uncertainty ranges arising from localized sheltering, brief clearing, or orographic effects near the harbor. NIWA’s seasonal outlook indicates temperatures are equally likely to finish near or above average for the Wellington region, consistent with current model runs but leaving room for revisions ahead of the event. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping trader focus on the next updated model suite and final observational verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,786Data di fine
25 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and Met Office guidance projects a 15°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 25 under mainly fine conditions with northwesterly flow, which is advecting milder maritime air across Cook Strait and producing a modest positive anomaly relative to the August climatological average of roughly 13°C. This consensus supports the market’s elevated implied probabilities on 16°C and 17°C outcomes, as traders incorporate typical 1–2°C uncertainty ranges arising from localized sheltering, brief clearing, or orographic effects near the harbor. NIWA’s seasonal outlook indicates temperatures are equally likely to finish near or above average for the Wellington region, consistent with current model runs but leaving room for revisions ahead of the event. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping trader focus on the next updated model suite and final observational verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,786Data di fine
25 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService and Met Office guidance projects a 15°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 25 under mainly fine conditions with northwesterly flow, which is advecting milder maritime air across Cook Strait and producing a modest positive anomaly relative to the August climatological average of roughly 13°C. This consensus supports the market’s elevated implied probabilities on 16°C and 17°C outcomes, as traders incorporate typical 1–2°C uncertainty ranges arising from localized sheltering, brief clearing, or orographic effects near the harbor. NIWA’s seasonal outlook indicates temperatures are equally likely to finish near or above average for the Wellington region, consistent with current model runs but leaving room for revisions ahead of the event. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping trader focus on the next updated model suite and final observational verification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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