Drier southwest monsoon conditions forecast by Singapore’s National Environment Agency for the first half of August are the main driver behind the near-even split between 32 °C and 33 °C outcomes. The July 31 advisory highlights below-average rainfall and maximum temperatures of 33–34 °C on most days, consistent with recent station readings that reached 33.8 °C on August 6. Typical August climatology shows afternoon highs near 31–32 °C, but reduced cloud cover and humidity under prevailing winds can push peaks higher when daytime heating is strong. Forecast models currently cluster around 32–33 °C for August 9, with limited scope for 34 °C unless convection remains suppressed; any late increase in showers could cap the daily maximum closer to 31 °C. Updated NEA and regional model guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key inputs traders monitor before resolution.