**Forecast models from MetService, NIWA, and international sources indicate a highest temperature of 12–13°C for Wellington on August 7, 2026, consistent with typical mid-winter conditions.** August averages in the region are around 12°C for daytime highs, with recent short-term guidance showing a fine start on the 7th, light northerly winds developing, and minimal precipitation risk that could moderate temperatures. Southerly flows earlier in the week have kept readings near seasonal norms without significant warming or cooling anomalies. Trader consensus, reflected in the heavy weighting toward 13°C (52%) and 12°C (24.5%), aligns with these official model runs and climatological baselines, while lower probabilities for 14°C or above account for the limited upside potential under stable high-pressure influence. No major shifts in ensemble guidance have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this outlook.