San Francisco's marine layer and persistent onshore flow from the Pacific typically moderate peak temperatures in early August, but a regional high-pressure system has weakened this effect, supporting the market's emphasis on a 74-75°F high (35.5% implied probability). Official National Weather Service and model guidance point to afternoon readings in the low-to-mid 70s, with light winds and minimal cloud cover allowing modest warming above seasonal normals near 68-70°F. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on land-sea breeze timing, keeping the distribution centered on 72-77°F buckets while assigning low odds to 80°F+ outcomes given the cooling influence of the nearby ocean. Updated forecasts later today will refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a San Francisco il 4 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a San Francisco il 4 agosto?
74-75°F 38%
72-73°F 21%
76-77°F 19%
78-79°F 12%
NUOVO
$16,492 Vol.
NUOVO
$16,492 Vol.
4 ago 2026
67°F o inferiore
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
38%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F o superiore
<1%
74-75°F 38%
72-73°F 21%
76-77°F 19%
78-79°F 12%
NUOVO
$16,492 Vol.
NUOVO
$16,492 Vol.
4 ago 2026
67°F o inferiore
$981 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$692 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$3,413 Vol.
8%
72-73°F
$2,001 Vol.
21%
74-75°F
$1,886 Vol.
38%
76-77°F
$1,470 Vol.
19%
78-79°F
$1,305 Vol.
12%
80-81°F
$2,069 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$1,591 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$1,075 Vol.
<1%
86°F o superiore
$319 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.San Francisco's marine layer and persistent onshore flow from the Pacific typically moderate peak temperatures in early August, but a regional high-pressure system has weakened this effect, supporting the market's emphasis on a 74-75°F high (35.5% implied probability). Official National Weather Service and model guidance point to afternoon readings in the low-to-mid 70s, with light winds and minimal cloud cover allowing modest warming above seasonal normals near 68-70°F. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on land-sea breeze timing, keeping the distribution centered on 72-77°F buckets while assigning low odds to 80°F+ outcomes given the cooling influence of the nearby ocean. Updated forecasts later today will refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$16,492Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.San Francisco's marine layer and persistent onshore flow from the Pacific typically moderate peak temperatures in early August, but a regional high-pressure system has weakened this effect, supporting the market's emphasis on a 74-75°F high (35.5% implied probability). Official National Weather Service and model guidance point to afternoon readings in the low-to-mid 70s, with light winds and minimal cloud cover allowing modest warming above seasonal normals near 68-70°F. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on land-sea breeze timing, keeping the distribution centered on 72-77°F buckets while assigning low odds to 80°F+ outcomes given the cooling influence of the nearby ocean. Updated forecasts later today will refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,492Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...San Francisco's marine layer and persistent onshore flow from the Pacific typically moderate peak temperatures in early August, but a regional high-pressure system has weakened this effect, supporting the market's emphasis on a 74-75°F high (35.5% implied probability). Official National Weather Service and model guidance point to afternoon readings in the low-to-mid 70s, with light winds and minimal cloud cover allowing modest warming above seasonal normals near 68-70°F. Recent model runs show limited disagreement on land-sea breeze timing, keeping the distribution centered on 72-77°F buckets while assigning low odds to 80°F+ outcomes given the cooling influence of the nearby ocean. Updated forecasts later today will refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti