Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models converge on a peak of 34–35°C in Munich on August 15 under mostly sunny skies and light southwesterly flow, with minimal cloud cover allowing strong daytime radiative heating. This aligns with the market’s near-even split between those two bins at 37.5 % and 33.5 % implied probability. Key uncertainties center on the precise timing of any subtle moisture advection or afternoon boundary-layer mixing that could shave 1 °C off the maximum, as well as small differences in how models handle urban heat-island effects at the official measurement site. Historical August climatology places the long-term average high near 24 °C, so current guidance reflects an anomalous ridge of high pressure; traders are closely watching the next 24-hour model updates ahead of resolution.