**Current forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF consensus point to a peak temperature near 34°C in Madrid on September 14 under stable high-pressure conditions.** Clear skies, light southerly or variable winds, and dry air with low humidity are expected to allow strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate it. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 34°C (67.5% implied probability) and 35°C (25%), reflecting trader assessment of the most probable outcome based on the latest model runs. Minor variations in steering patterns or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact maximum by 1°C, while historical late-summer baselines for the region support highs in the low-to-mid 30s°C range when subsidence dominates. Updated model guidance ahead of the daily maximum will be the key near-term driver for any odds adjustment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 14 settembre?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 14 settembre?
34°C 68%
35°C 25%
33°C 7%
36°C 1.3%
NUOVO
$17,826 Vol.
NUOVO
$17,826 Vol.
14 set 2026
29°C o meno
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
7%
34°C
68%
35°C
25%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C o superiore
<1%
34°C 68%
35°C 25%
33°C 7%
36°C 1.3%
NUOVO
$17,826 Vol.
NUOVO
$17,826 Vol.
14 set 2026
29°C o meno
$238 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,201 Vol.
1%
31°C
$221 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$697 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$2,781 Vol.
7%
34°C
$4,635 Vol.
68%
35°C
$5,821 Vol.
25%
36°C
$931 Vol.
1%
37°C
$673 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$391 Vol.
<1%
39°C o superiore
$236 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF consensus point to a peak temperature near 34°C in Madrid on September 14 under stable high-pressure conditions.** Clear skies, light southerly or variable winds, and dry air with low humidity are expected to allow strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate it. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 34°C (67.5% implied probability) and 35°C (25%), reflecting trader assessment of the most probable outcome based on the latest model runs. Minor variations in steering patterns or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact maximum by 1°C, while historical late-summer baselines for the region support highs in the low-to-mid 30s°C range when subsidence dominates. Updated model guidance ahead of the daily maximum will be the key near-term driver for any odds adjustment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$17,826Data di fine
14 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF consensus point to a peak temperature near 34°C in Madrid on September 14 under stable high-pressure conditions.** Clear skies, light southerly or variable winds, and dry air with low humidity are expected to allow strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate it. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 34°C (67.5% implied probability) and 35°C (25%), reflecting trader assessment of the most probable outcome based on the latest model runs. Minor variations in steering patterns or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact maximum by 1°C, while historical late-summer baselines for the region support highs in the low-to-mid 30s°C range when subsidence dominates. Updated model guidance ahead of the daily maximum will be the key near-term driver for any odds adjustment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,826Data di fine
14 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF consensus point to a peak temperature near 34°C in Madrid on September 14 under stable high-pressure conditions.** Clear skies, light southerly or variable winds, and dry air with low humidity are expected to allow strong daytime heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation to moderate it. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 34°C (67.5% implied probability) and 35°C (25%), reflecting trader assessment of the most probable outcome based on the latest model runs. Minor variations in steering patterns or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact maximum by 1°C, while historical late-summer baselines for the region support highs in the low-to-mid 30s°C range when subsidence dominates. Updated model guidance ahead of the daily maximum will be the key near-term driver for any odds adjustment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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