Recent short-range forecasts position 28–29°C as the leading outcomes for Istanbul’s daily maximum on August 4, reflecting typical early-August climatology of 28–30°C highs under stable high-pressure conditions. Current model guidance from NOAA-aligned sources and European centers shows mostly sunny skies with light northerly flow, limiting daytime warming while keeping afternoon peaks near seasonal norms rather than the occasional 32–34°C spikes seen in heat-wave years. With only 48 hours until resolution, traders are weighting the narrow uncertainty band in official temperature observations over any late intensification of the ridge, producing the observed concentration of implied probability around the 28–29°C thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Istanbul il 4 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Istanbul il 4 agosto?
28°C 47%
29°C 36%
30°C 15%
27°C 4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ago 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
47%
29°C
36%
30°C
15%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
2%
28°C 47%
29°C 36%
30°C 15%
27°C 4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ago 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$31 Vol.
1%
26°C
$16 Vol.
2%
27°C
$26 Vol.
4%
28°C
$104 Vol.
47%
29°C
$5 Vol.
36%
30°C
$28 Vol.
15%
31°C
$6 Vol.
2%
32°C
$0 Vol.
2%
33°C
$30 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts position 28–29°C as the leading outcomes for Istanbul’s daily maximum on August 4, reflecting typical early-August climatology of 28–30°C highs under stable high-pressure conditions. Current model guidance from NOAA-aligned sources and European centers shows mostly sunny skies with light northerly flow, limiting daytime warming while keeping afternoon peaks near seasonal norms rather than the occasional 32–34°C spikes seen in heat-wave years. With only 48 hours until resolution, traders are weighting the narrow uncertainty band in official temperature observations over any late intensification of the ridge, producing the observed concentration of implied probability around the 28–29°C thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$257Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts position 28–29°C as the leading outcomes for Istanbul’s daily maximum on August 4, reflecting typical early-August climatology of 28–30°C highs under stable high-pressure conditions. Current model guidance from NOAA-aligned sources and European centers shows mostly sunny skies with light northerly flow, limiting daytime warming while keeping afternoon peaks near seasonal norms rather than the occasional 32–34°C spikes seen in heat-wave years. With only 48 hours until resolution, traders are weighting the narrow uncertainty band in official temperature observations over any late intensification of the ridge, producing the observed concentration of implied probability around the 28–29°C thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$257Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts position 28–29°C as the leading outcomes for Istanbul’s daily maximum on August 4, reflecting typical early-August climatology of 28–30°C highs under stable high-pressure conditions. Current model guidance from NOAA-aligned sources and European centers shows mostly sunny skies with light northerly flow, limiting daytime warming while keeping afternoon peaks near seasonal norms rather than the occasional 32–34°C spikes seen in heat-wave years. With only 48 hours until resolution, traders are weighting the narrow uncertainty band in official temperature observations over any late intensification of the ridge, producing the observed concentration of implied probability around the 28–29°C thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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