Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, supported by energy price pressures from supply disruptions and a resilient labor market, has shifted trader expectations toward at least one 2026 rate hike. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50-3.75%, recent FOMC projections show roughly half of participants penciling in higher rates by year-end, while Governor Waller’s September 3 comments highlighted openness to tightening at the September 15-16 meeting if incoming PCE and CPI data fail to cool. Markets currently price about 40-65 basis points of hikes through year-end, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on the balance of risks. Key near-term catalysts include August inflation releases and the remaining 2026 FOMC meetings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
72% probabilità
$8,754,026 Vol.
$8,754,026 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
72% probabilità
$8,754,026 Vol.
$8,754,026 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, supported by energy price pressures from supply disruptions and a resilient labor market, has shifted trader expectations toward at least one 2026 rate hike. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50-3.75%, recent FOMC projections show roughly half of participants penciling in higher rates by year-end, while Governor Waller’s September 3 comments highlighted openness to tightening at the September 15-16 meeting if incoming PCE and CPI data fail to cool. Markets currently price about 40-65 basis points of hikes through year-end, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on the balance of risks. Key near-term catalysts include August inflation releases and the remaining 2026 FOMC meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,754,026Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, supported by energy price pressures from supply disruptions and a resilient labor market, has shifted trader expectations toward at least one 2026 rate hike. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50-3.75%, recent FOMC projections show roughly half of participants penciling in higher rates by year-end, while Governor Waller’s September 3 comments highlighted openness to tightening at the September 15-16 meeting if incoming PCE and CPI data fail to cool. Markets currently price about 40-65 basis points of hikes through year-end, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on the balance of risks. Key near-term catalysts include August inflation releases and the remaining 2026 FOMC meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,754,026Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, supported by energy price pressures from supply disruptions and a resilient labor market, has shifted trader expectations toward at least one 2026 rate hike. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50-3.75%, recent FOMC projections show roughly half of participants penciling in higher rates by year-end, while Governor Waller’s September 3 comments highlighted openness to tightening at the September 15-16 meeting if incoming PCE and CPI data fail to cool. Markets currently price about 40-65 basis points of hikes through year-end, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on the balance of risks. Key near-term catalysts include August inflation releases and the remaining 2026 FOMC meetings.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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