Persistent inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target—July CPI at 3.4% and PCE near 3.7%—combined with a hawkish June 2026 dot-plot shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh, underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Nine policymakers now project a higher year-end rate, reflecting concerns over supply shocks and energy prices that have kept the policy rate at 3.50–3.75%. Short-term futures currently embed roughly 30–65% odds of a September 15–16 move, with the outcome hinging on incoming August inflation and employment data. Traders view the labor market’s modest cooling as insufficient to offset price pressures, sustaining elevated odds for tightening before year-end despite historical base rates favoring pauses in similar environments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
72% probabilità
$8,753,853 Vol.
$8,753,853 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
72% probabilità
$8,753,853 Vol.
$8,753,853 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target—July CPI at 3.4% and PCE near 3.7%—combined with a hawkish June 2026 dot-plot shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh, underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Nine policymakers now project a higher year-end rate, reflecting concerns over supply shocks and energy prices that have kept the policy rate at 3.50–3.75%. Short-term futures currently embed roughly 30–65% odds of a September 15–16 move, with the outcome hinging on incoming August inflation and employment data. Traders view the labor market’s modest cooling as insufficient to offset price pressures, sustaining elevated odds for tightening before year-end despite historical base rates favoring pauses in similar environments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,753,853Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target—July CPI at 3.4% and PCE near 3.7%—combined with a hawkish June 2026 dot-plot shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh, underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Nine policymakers now project a higher year-end rate, reflecting concerns over supply shocks and energy prices that have kept the policy rate at 3.50–3.75%. Short-term futures currently embed roughly 30–65% odds of a September 15–16 move, with the outcome hinging on incoming August inflation and employment data. Traders view the labor market’s modest cooling as insufficient to offset price pressures, sustaining elevated odds for tightening before year-end despite historical base rates favoring pauses in similar environments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,753,873Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target—July CPI at 3.4% and PCE near 3.7%—combined with a hawkish June 2026 dot-plot shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh, underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. Nine policymakers now project a higher year-end rate, reflecting concerns over supply shocks and energy prices that have kept the policy rate at 3.50–3.75%. Short-term futures currently embed roughly 30–65% odds of a September 15–16 move, with the outcome hinging on incoming August inflation and employment data. Traders view the labor market’s modest cooling as insufficient to offset price pressures, sustaining elevated odds for tightening before year-end despite historical base rates favoring pauses in similar environments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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