Elevated inflation readings and revised FOMC projections under new Chair Kevin Warsh remain the dominant driver of pricing for the September–December 2026 rate path, with the federal funds target currently at 3.50–3.75 percent. Stronger-than-expected PCE prints, Middle East-related supply shocks, and resilient labor-market data have shifted the median dot plot higher, prompting traders to assign meaningful probability to one or more 25-basis-point hikes across the remaining meetings. The closely bunched outcomes—led by Pause–Pause–Pause at 25.5 percent—highlight data dependence, with upcoming September 16 CPI, employment reports, and the FOMC statement itself serving as key swing factors that could consolidate or fragment the current distribution of implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPausa–pausa–pausa 26%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa 19%
Pausa–Pausa–Aumento 15%
Pausa–Aumento–Pausa 11.9%
$11,696 Vol.
$11,696 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Aumento–Pausa–Aumento
9%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa
19%
Aumento–Aumento–Aumento
5%
Rialzo–Rialzo–Pausa
7%
Pausa–Pausa–Aumento
15%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
26%
Pausa–Aumento–Aumento
11%
Pausa–Aumento–Pausa
12%
Altro
8%
Pausa–pausa–pausa 26%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa 19%
Pausa–Pausa–Aumento 15%
Pausa–Aumento–Pausa 11.9%
$11,696 Vol.
$11,696 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Aumento–Pausa–Aumento
$314 Vol.
9%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa
$489 Vol.
19%
Aumento–Aumento–Aumento
$216 Vol.
5%
Rialzo–Rialzo–Pausa
$429 Vol.
7%
Pausa–Pausa–Aumento
$253 Vol.
15%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
$9,173 Vol.
26%
Pausa–Aumento–Aumento
$237 Vol.
11%
Pausa–Aumento–Pausa
$336 Vol.
12%
Altro
$249 Vol.
8%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and revised FOMC projections under new Chair Kevin Warsh remain the dominant driver of pricing for the September–December 2026 rate path, with the federal funds target currently at 3.50–3.75 percent. Stronger-than-expected PCE prints, Middle East-related supply shocks, and resilient labor-market data have shifted the median dot plot higher, prompting traders to assign meaningful probability to one or more 25-basis-point hikes across the remaining meetings. The closely bunched outcomes—led by Pause–Pause–Pause at 25.5 percent—highlight data dependence, with upcoming September 16 CPI, employment reports, and the FOMC statement itself serving as key swing factors that could consolidate or fragment the current distribution of implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$11,696Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and revised FOMC projections under new Chair Kevin Warsh remain the dominant driver of pricing for the September–December 2026 rate path, with the federal funds target currently at 3.50–3.75 percent. Stronger-than-expected PCE prints, Middle East-related supply shocks, and resilient labor-market data have shifted the median dot plot higher, prompting traders to assign meaningful probability to one or more 25-basis-point hikes across the remaining meetings. The closely bunched outcomes—led by Pause–Pause–Pause at 25.5 percent—highlight data dependence, with upcoming September 16 CPI, employment reports, and the FOMC statement itself serving as key swing factors that could consolidate or fragment the current distribution of implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$11,696Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and revised FOMC projections under new Chair Kevin Warsh remain the dominant driver of pricing for the September–December 2026 rate path, with the federal funds target currently at 3.50–3.75 percent. Stronger-than-expected PCE prints, Middle East-related supply shocks, and resilient labor-market data have shifted the median dot plot higher, prompting traders to assign meaningful probability to one or more 25-basis-point hikes across the remaining meetings. The closely bunched outcomes—led by Pause–Pause–Pause at 25.5 percent—highlight data dependence, with upcoming September 16 CPI, employment reports, and the FOMC statement itself serving as key swing factors that could consolidate or fragment the current distribution of implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti