Persistent July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, alongside August unemployment holding at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, anchor trader consensus around a 60.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Resilient growth and energy-driven price pressures have shifted market-implied rate paths higher, elevating the 24.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while compressing expectations for cuts. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot updates reinforce a higher terminal rate outlook near 3.8% by late 2026. The September 11 CPI release and subsequent data will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation persistence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNo change 61%
Aumento di 25 punti base 25%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$62,478 Vol.
$62,478 Vol.
27 gen 2027
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
61%
Aumento di 25 punti base
25%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
2%
No change 61%
Aumento di 25 punti base 25%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$62,478 Vol.
$62,478 Vol.
27 gen 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,099 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$11,934 Vol.
14%
No change
$19,062 Vol.
61%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$15,867 Vol.
25%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$2,515 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, alongside August unemployment holding at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, anchor trader consensus around a 60.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Resilient growth and energy-driven price pressures have shifted market-implied rate paths higher, elevating the 24.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while compressing expectations for cuts. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot updates reinforce a higher terminal rate outlook near 3.8% by late 2026. The September 11 CPI release and subsequent data will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation persistence.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$62,478Data di fine
27 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, alongside August unemployment holding at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, anchor trader consensus around a 60.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Resilient growth and energy-driven price pressures have shifted market-implied rate paths higher, elevating the 24.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while compressing expectations for cuts. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot updates reinforce a higher terminal rate outlook near 3.8% by late 2026. The September 11 CPI release and subsequent data will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation persistence.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$62,478Data di fine
27 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Persistent July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, alongside August unemployment holding at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, anchor trader consensus around a 60.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Resilient growth and energy-driven price pressures have shifted market-implied rate paths higher, elevating the 24.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while compressing expectations for cuts. Recent FOMC communications and dot-plot updates reinforce a higher terminal rate outlook near 3.8% by late 2026. The September 11 CPI release and subsequent data will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty over inflation persistence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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