Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote in California's 49th district, facing Republican Armen Kurdian in the November general election. The race carries a Solid Democratic rating from forecasters, reflecting Levin's substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.8 million, the district's shift toward a D+4 partisan lean after Proposition 50 redistricting added coastal San Diego areas, and historical Democratic performance. Kurdian's limited resources and lower primary share have kept his implied probability near 4%. Trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with late national political swings, candidate-specific events, or turnout surprises before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-49 House Election Winner
CA-49 House Election Winner
$27,983 Vol.
$27,983 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike Levin (D)
95%
Armen Kurdian (R)
4%
$27,983 Vol.
$27,983 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike Levin (D)
$19,756 Vol.
95%
Armen Kurdian (R)
$8,227 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote in California's 49th district, facing Republican Armen Kurdian in the November general election. The race carries a Solid Democratic rating from forecasters, reflecting Levin's substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.8 million, the district's shift toward a D+4 partisan lean after Proposition 50 redistricting added coastal San Diego areas, and historical Democratic performance. Kurdian's limited resources and lower primary share have kept his implied probability near 4%. Trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with late national political swings, candidate-specific events, or turnout surprises before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$27,983Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote in California's 49th district, facing Republican Armen Kurdian in the November general election. The race carries a Solid Democratic rating from forecasters, reflecting Levin's substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.8 million, the district's shift toward a D+4 partisan lean after Proposition 50 redistricting added coastal San Diego areas, and historical Democratic performance. Kurdian's limited resources and lower primary share have kept his implied probability near 4%. Trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with late national political swings, candidate-specific events, or turnout surprises before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,983Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Levin advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote in California's 49th district, facing Republican Armen Kurdian in the November general election. The race carries a Solid Democratic rating from forecasters, reflecting Levin's substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.8 million, the district's shift toward a D+4 partisan lean after Proposition 50 redistricting added coastal San Diego areas, and historical Democratic performance. Kurdian's limited resources and lower primary share have kept his implied probability near 4%. Trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages, though outcomes could shift with late national political swings, candidate-specific events, or turnout surprises before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti